If you invest, advise, or build in Qatar, you’ve just been handed a friendlier backdrop. Policy rates eased 25 bps in September, headline CPI is running below 1% YoY, and both trade and air travel are printing near highs. Yet the market isn’t moving in one piece. Industrial & logistics and hospitality are out in front; office and retail are two-speed; residential remains narrowly range-bound. This article walks you through the logic behind our six-month scorecard so that, when you open the chart, you’ll already know where to look—and why.
You may be asking: is the post-World-Cup normalization over? Our read: the stabilization phase has matured into selective momentum. Mwani’s August throughput hit 126,481 TEUs, QCAA reported a record ~5.0 million passengers in August, and Qatar Tourism clocked 2.6 million visitors in H1. With the peg to the USD intact and a modest policy cut filtering into interbank prints, risk-adjusted spreads are inching your way.
The country scorecard ranks each city×sector on six pillars you underwrite every day: Demand, Supply (6–18m), Pricing Power, Affordability, Liquidity, and Policy. We score each pillar (1–5), weight them, and produce a composite on a 1–5 scale. Finally, we apply sector weights reflecting the next six months (Industrial & Logistics over-weighted by +0.05) to generate a country ranking you can map directly into target yields, IRR scenarios, and leasing strategies.
Why this helps now: when funding costs fall and macro noise increases, the risk is chasing the wrong beta. The scorecard forces a discipline—where are absorption and pricing likely to hold under realistic sensitivities? As the scorecard below shows, the answer is not uniform across Doha.
What’s driving it: trade pulse and rent resilience. Mwani’s August throughput rose month-on-month and consultant evidence shows ambient warehouse rents at ~QAR 35.3/sqm/month and cold-chain ~QAR 44.3, both up QoQ. Food and pharma nodes are doing the heavy lifting. For you, that suggests cap-rate compression potential of 10–25 bps on core product if interbank rates drift another −25 to −50 bps. In underwriting, bias to 3–5-year leases with CPI steps; model downside with TEUs −10% and power tariffs flat.
Record air passengers in August and a solid H1 demand base (~71% occ; ADR ~QAR 454; RevPAR ~QAR 321) set a high floor into the events season. Think rate discipline, not rate spikes. If you hold keys in West Bay or Lusail, the base case is occupancy 68–72% with ADR holding. IRR is most sensitive to distribution mix, not just average rate; align F&B and events contracts to smooth shoulder nights.
The story is bifurcation. Knight Frank pegs Grade-A averages near QAR 82/sqm/month, with Lusail prime up to QAR 115 and West Bay prime up to QAR 109. Secondary stock continues to trade on incentives. If you’re leasing or acquiring, view incentives as permanent features for non-prime. Target buildings where relocation demand from public/quasi-public occupiers remains in play, and insist on transparent vacancy audits at the stack level.
Base rents average ~QAR 202/sqm/month, but lifestyle destinations and strong F&B corridors outperform (≈QAR 272 and ≈QAR 231 respectively). The tourism and air-pax pulse helps, but execution quality varies sharply by asset. If you’re developing, build the underwriting around turnover clauses and realistic fit-out-to-trading lags of two to four months; absorption is tenant-mix dependent, not just location-dependent.
Regulatory tailwinds matter: the Communications Regulatory Authority (هيئة تنظيم الاتصالات) opened access to ~4,860 km of government ducts, improving fiber/route options. For new DCs the gating factor is still power allocation (KAHRAMAA). Cold-chain, meanwhile, piggybacks the logistics advantage; if you’re considering spec boxes, require anchor demand from grocery/pharma distributors before you price the shell.
Average apartment rents are ~QAR 10,236/month and villas ~QAR 13,360/month (Q2). The market’s “oversupply slump” narrative ignores scale: expected H2 deliveries (~4,500 units) equal roughly 1.1% of stock. If you’re a landlord, plan for apartments −1% to +1% and villas −2% to 0% over six months, with Pearl/Lusail outperforming. For sales developers, hold price expectations in a narrow band and push velocity through finish quality and payment plans.
Enrollment datasets are updated, but transparent seat-pipeline data is thin. Treat new school development as a licensing and operator-execution play rather than a pure real-estate spread until MoEHE publishes clearer cadence.
Cost guides point to Doha averages near US$2,631/m². If your pro-forma relies on material deflation, revisit contingencies; value engineering beats timing the commodity cycle.
Every cell is a forward look rooted in two real-world questions: can you lease it at the modeled rate, and can you refinance it at the modeled yield? We tie both to monthly signposts:
When you open the chart, start at the top-right: Doha × Industrial & Logistics. Then compare Hospitality and Office rows—notice how the demand pillars score well, but we handicap supply differently. Work down to Retail and Alt-Assets with the specific drivers above in mind.
Qatar enters 2025H2 with easier funding conditions, subdued CPI, and a firm logistics and travel pulse. The peg to the USD anchors the rate path, while sector momentum is diverging: logistics and hospitality lead; office and retail split between prime and secondary; residential remains two-speed.
This report distills the six-month view into a Gap Scorecard you can underwrite. Each decisive number shows value · unit · as-of and is two-sourced: a primary authority plus a Tier-1 corroboration. Items older than 12 months are flagged with an upgrade path.
The composite ranks city×sector on six pillars: Demand, Supply (6–18m), Pricing Power, Affordability, Liquidity, and Policy. We weight pillars into a 1–5 score; then apply sector weights to form a country ranking.
| Rank | City | Sector | Score (weighted) | Why now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doha | Industrial & Logistics | 0.644 | TEUs firm; ambient and cold-chain rents edged up QoQ. |
| 2 | Doha | Hospitality | 0.478 | Record air pax; solid H1 visitor base ahead of events season. |
| 3 | Doha | Office | 0.454 | Lusail prime resilient; relocations support face rents. |
| 4 | Doha | Retail | 0.452 | Destination formats outperform; tourism tailwind. |
| 5 | Doha | Alt-Assets | 0.447 | CRA opened access to 4,860 km ducts; DC readiness improves. |
| Metric | Latest (value · unit · as-of) | Primary | Corroboration | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QCB policy rates | Deposit 4.35; Lending 4.85; Repo 4.60 · % · 2025-09-17 | QCB | Reuters | High |
| Interbank print (QIBOR proxy) | 4.76 · % · 2025-07-31 | QCB (QIBOR) | Moody’s Analytics | Medium (numeric via aggregator) |
| CPI headline YoY | 0.73 · % · 2025-08-31 | TradingEconomics/PSA | Arab News | Medium |
| CPI Housing & Utilities | 91.04 · index (2018=100) · 2025-08-31 | TradingEconomics/PSA | ValuStrat | Medium |
| QCB Real Estate Price Index | 223.61 · index · 2025-06-30 | QCB (methodology) | TradingEconomics | Medium |
| Domestic credit | 1,330,000 · QAR mn · 2025-06-30 | The Peninsula | CEIC | Medium |
| Ports throughput | 126,481 · TEUs · 2025-08-31 | QNA | Zawya | High |
| Air passengers (HIA) | ~5,000,000 · pax · 2025-08-31 | QCAA | CAPA | High |
| Tourism arrivals / hotels | 2.6 · million visitors; ~71% occ; 5.23m room-nights · 2025-06-30 | Qatar Tourism | QT Hub | High |
| USD/QAR peg | 3.64 · QAR per USD · policy framework current | QCB | IMF Article IV (2025) | High |
| Construction cost (proxy) | 2,631 · USD/m² · 2025-06-01 | Turner & Townsend | Arcadis | Medium |
Read-through: easier rates, sub-1% CPI, firm trade and travel → mild cap-rate compression in logistics/hospitality; other sectors broadly stable.
| Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apts 10,236 · QAR/mo; Villas 13,360 · QAR/mo · 2025-06-30 — Knight Frank (High). Doha deals 375,355,330 · QAR · 2025-08-31 — MoJ. | Apts: −1% to +1%; Villas: −2% to 0% (by Mar-2026). | Low CPI; handovers in Lusail/Pearl; sensitivity ±50 bps interbank; ±10% handovers. | Medium |
| Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Grade-A 82 · QAR/sqm/mo (Q2-2025); Lusail prime ≤115; West Bay prime ≤109 — Knight Frank. Cross-check Grade-A 116 · QAR/sqm/mo — ValuStrat. | Prime 0% to +2%; Secondary −2% to 0%. | Relocations to Lusail; sensitivity ±50 bps interbank; ±20k sqm slippage. | Medium |
| Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base 202 · QAR/sqm/mo; Prime lifestyle ≈272; F&B ≈231 · 2025-06-30 — Knight Frank (Medium). | Prime 0% to +2%; Secondary −2% to 0%. | Tourism arrivals and air pax; sensitivity ±10% visitors. | Medium |
| Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ambient 35.3 · QAR/sqm/mo; Cold-chain 44.3 · QAR/sqm/mo · 2025-06-30 — ValuStrat, ValuStrat. TEUs 126,481 · TEUs · 2025-08-31 — QNA. | Ambient 0% to +2%; Cold-chain +1% to +3%. | Trade momentum; sensitivity ±10% TEUs; energy tariffs stable. | Medium (rents), High (TEUs) |
| Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occ 70.7%; ADR 454 · QAR; RevPAR 321 · QAR · 2025-06-30 — Knight Frank/STR. Visitors 2.6 · m · 2025-06-30 — Qatar Tourism. | Occ 68–72%; ADR 440–465 · QAR; RevPAR 300–335 · QAR. | Events season; sensitivity ±10% air pax. | High |
| Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Private schools ~326 · schools · 2024 baseline — OBG/MoEHE. Enrollment dataset updated 2025-05 — data.gov.qa. | Seats flat to +1%; Fees 0–2%. | Licensing cadence; term starts; migration. | Medium |
| Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Telecom ducts open access 4,860 · km · 2025-06-02 — QNA/CRA, DevelopingTelecoms. | DC rates stable; Cold-chain +1% to +3%. | Power allocations; operator capex; sensitivity: procurement lead-times. | High (ducts), Medium (cold-chain) |
Residential CSV · Office CSV · Retail CSV · Industrial & Logistics CSV · Hospitality CSV · Education CSV · Alt-Assets CSV
Myth 1: “Residential rents will drop 5–10% in six months due to oversupply.”
Test: H2 handovers vs stock; achieved rents; sales liquidity. Evidence: 4,500 expected H2 units vs 402,137 stock (≈1.1%) — Gulf Times/ValuStrat, ValuStrat. Average apartment rent 10,236 · QAR/mo · 2025-06-30 — Knight Frank. Finding: Claim rejected for 6 months. Implication: Keep bands tight near flat; focus Pearl/Lusail.
Myth 2: “Logistics is weakening; warehouse rents must fall.”
Test: TEUs direction and achieved rents QoQ. Evidence: 126,481 · TEUs · 2025-08-31 (↑ MoM) — QNA; ambient 35.3 and cold 44.3 · QAR/sqm/mo · 2025-06-30 — ValuStrat. Finding: Claim rejected. Implication: Bias to food/pharma nodes with 3–5y terms.
| Rank | City | Sector | Score | Why now | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Doha | Industrial & Logistics (Cold-chain) | 0.644 | Trade pulse + rent firmness | High/Medium |
| 2 | Doha | Hospitality (Prime keys) | 0.478 | Record pax; events season | High |
| 3 | Doha | Office (Lusail Grade-A) | 0.454 | Relocations; limited prime supply | High/Medium |
| 4 | Doha | Retail (Destination) | 0.452 | Tourism-led footfall | Medium |
| 5 | Doha | Alt-Assets (DC readiness) | 0.447 | Open ducts; infra momentum | High |
Three lanes stand out in the Qatar real estate outlook 2025H2: (1) Industrial & logistics (cold-chain first), underwrite 3–5-year leases with CPI steps and assume mild cap-rate compression if interbank eases; (2) Prime, event-adjacent hospitality in West Bay/Lusail, where occupancy and ADR look resilient; (3) Lusail Grade-A office driven by relocations. The scorecard places these at the top because demand is measured monthly (TEUs, air passengers, signed relocations) while near-term supply is manageable.
Tie your model directly to monthly signposts:
In Qatar real estate cold-chain, pre-commit at least 40–60% of GLA before pouring slabs; for ambient boxes in proven hubs, a modest spec slice can work if you have visibility on 3PL or grocery demand. Require step-ups tied to CPI and a reinstatement clause on fit-outs. If TEUs and FMCG imports hold, absorption supports a 0–2% rent drift; if not, assume more extended downtime.
The Doha real estate office market is two-speed. Lusail Grade-A: prioritize; face-rents hold with relocations and limited prime completions. West Bay secondary: reposition only with a clear spec advantage—sub-divisible floorplates, efficient MEP, and an incentive budget you can live with. For Qatar real estate lenders, set higher DSCR floors on secondary and require a landlord vacancy panel before credit sign-off.
Not broadly. Our Qatar real estate scorecard shows a narrow band: apartments −1% to +1%, villas −2% to 0% over six months. The supply shock is slight (H2 handovers ≈1.1% of stock). If you’re a developer, win with phased releases, finish quality, and post-handover plans. If you’re a buy-to-let investor, focus on Pearl/Lusail micro-locations where demand depth is more substantial.
Build a “resilient base” plan and an “events-uplift” plan. Base case: occupancy 68–72%, ADR QAR 440–465. Lock corporate and MICE mix early; protect weekend ADR with fenced packages. Your NOI variance in Qatar hospitality will hinge on distribution mix and F&B capture, not just sticker ADR.
Four that move underwriting quickly: (1) QIBOR 1M/3M for debt pricing; (2) Mwani TEUs for industrial absorption; (3) QCAA passengers and Qatar Tourism arrivals for hospitality/retail; (4) MoJ monthly transactions for liquidity. If two of four flip negative together, revisit yield and absorption assumptions.
In Doha real estate retail, performance is tenant-mix, not just location. Pre-agree anchor covenants; stagger fit-out timetables; assume 90–120 days from handover to trading. Use turnover rent bands for F&B and essentials. If air-pax or visitor numbers soften, incentives rise—bake a contingency line in CapEx and net-effective rent.
Three gates: (1) Ducts/fiber—CRA has opened ~4,860 km; verify route-to-site. (2) Power—secure KAHRAMAA allocation and timelines before land. (3) Latency to customers—map enterprise demand. If two gates are green, Qatar property market DC pilots can move; if power lags, pivot to cold-chain where rents already clear.
A tourism/aviation shock or a sharp trade slowdown. If QCAA passengers fall by>10% for 2 months, cut hospitality ADR by 3–5% and incorporate RevPAR elasticity into your model. If TEUs slide >5% m/m twice, move industrial rent growth from +1–3% to flat, extend downtime by 15–30 days, and re-check covenant quality. Keep the Qatar real estate scorecard live and adjust weights; the data is the map, you’re the decision-maker.
Decide upfront which figures are decisive (rents, vacancies, volumes, TEUs, pax). For each: one authority and one Tier-1 market-house. If anything is older than 12 months, flag and add an upgrade path (e.g., PSA/NPC CPI housing API, QCB REPI table, landlord rent panel). This rule keeps Qatar real estate diligence tight while maintaining speed.
Map each sector’s six-month band to NOI growth and a cap-rate sensitivity table (−25/0/+25 bps). Combine with debt at QIBOR plus your spread, then run three cases. For logistics, IRR comes from steady NOI and a small exit-yield win; for hospitality, from occupancy discipline and F&B capture; for office, from leasing velocity more than rent growth. That’s how professionals turn a Qatar real estate score into an investable decision.
Need asset-level comps, absorption curves, or a bespoke Bahrain real estate pipeline audit? Contact us, and we’ll share the Bahrain Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 deeper cuts and model tabs.
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