Lebanon’s market rarely lines up this many directional signals at once. The official USD/LBP anchor remains 89,500, smoothing contract math and helping you price cash flows in dollars. Port of Beirut containers have firmed, indicating steady inventory movement. Passenger traffic is up, feeding hospitality and retail footfall. Yet bank credit is thin, and northern freight has slowed, leaving capital selective and execution tricky.
If you advise, invest, or build here, this mix is your edge—provided you separate durable flow signals from narrative noise. That’s precisely what our six-factor Gap Scorecard does. We convert monthly indicators into a cross-city, cross-sector rank so you can underwrite six months forward with confidence before you even look at the chart.
As the scorecard below shows, Beirut dominates the near-term opportunity set. Tripoli is a watch-list city: permits are lively, but freight softness and operational frictions argue for patience.
The scorecard blends six things you already track, but rarely in one place:
Why now? Because headline CPI has re-accelerated while “Actual rent” is barely moving, port and passenger flows are firm in Beirut, and Tripoli’s freight is down year-to-date. Those divergences determine where absorption holds, where rents can drift up, and where cap rates should stay put.
Sources referenced throughout include the Central Administration of Statistics (CAS) (CAS CPI portal), Banque du Liban (BDL) (bdl.gov.lb), Port of Beirut (Statistics), RHIA/DGCA via press (L’Orient Today, CAPA), OEA/BRITE (OEA Beirut, OEA Tripoli, BRITE — Beirut permits area, BRITE — Tripoli permits area), Credit Libanais (OEPT digest) (Tripoli Port activity note), and S&P Global/BLOM (PMI) (S&P release, BLOM PMI note).
If you’re underwriting sheds near the port or airport, the data is on your side. Port of Beirut handled 79,173 TEU in August and 80,676 in September, with double-digit year-on-year gains reported by operator-aligned sources. That’s the cleanest “real economy” confirmation we have. Imported inventory is moving; operators need covered, functional space with good access and predictable opex.
What this means for you:
Expect warehouse rents to be flat to +1% over the next 6 months (Inference). Absorption should be steady, with vacancy flat to slightly tighter where access is excellent. Structure deals with shorter WAULTs and CPI-linked bumpers to protect IRR. Your cap-rate outlook is stable—expansion requires either a TEU surge or a notable stock shortage.
Retail follows people. Beirut RHIA processed 929,815 passengers in August, up nearly 40% year-on-year, according to operator counts reported in the press and trade outlets. The Beirut Souks are re-tenanting; management reported 62 shops open by December last year and dozens more queued in 1Q-2025. Combine that footfall with healthy container flow, and you have a case for flat-to-+2 % prime USD rents through the shoulder season.
What this means for you:
If you’re leasing BCD or top centers, prioritize lease-up velocity over headline rent—pepper in fit-out support or step-rent mechanics. Your IRR driver is minimizing downtime, not pushing face rates. Watch monthly pax and TEUs; two weak prints in a row are your early warning.
Passenger flow is the most explicit near-term proxy for beds. With RHIA up sharply year-on-year, the case is there for AOR in the 52–58% range and ADR around USD 130–170 on 4–5-star assets (Inference). The grid is still inconsistent, but operator playbooks are set: hybrid power, lean staffing, targeted F&B concepts.
What this means for you:
Prefer asset-light models or management agreements that allow you to hedge utilities. Your underwriting hinges on shoulder-season absorption; use weekly arrivals and event calendars to pace marketing. The risk event is airspace or security disruption—bake a −5pp AOR sensitivity into scenarios.
The number most landlords ask about—rents—is the calm one. CAS shows “Actual rent” up only +0.20% m/m in October, while headline CPI beat +3%. The city’s permit cadence has ticked up, but the permit-to-handover gap remains large. In practice, that means the new supply drip is slow, yet dollarized contracts and limited wage catch-up cap your USD rent growth.
What this means for you:
Underwrite USD rents flat to +1.5% for six months (Inference). For sales, prime infill can still clear at 0–2% above today if you keep unit sizes disciplined and finishes efficient. Your IRR is more about velocity and phasing than price inflation. Track CAS “Actual rent” monthly; two prints above +0.8% m/m would change this view.
The PMI is above 50, indicating mild expansion, and BDD Phase C adds a future focal point for tech-enabled tenants. But decision cycles are long, and fit-out capex is real. Absent a corporate relocation catalyst, Class A rents are likely 1% to +1% with vacancy stable to +50 bps depending on sub-market.
What this means for you:
This is a renewals market. Drive capex-light upgrades, sweeten parking, and improve IT resilience while protecting cash flow. If you’re eyeing speculative space, pair it with pre-let milestones to manage downside.
You may be asking: “What about Tripoli? Permits look strong—should I follow them?” The data says to be selective. OEA-Tripoli permits have been elevated—159,266 m² area and 295 licenses in September—but OEPT freight is down ~24% y/y YTD, and press reports flagged clearance delays in early October. That mix suggests starting only where land is advantageous, contractors are liquid, and product is small or staged.
What this means for you:
Treat Tripoli as entitlement-first. Bank land lightly, time your start to the port’s cadence, and stick to turnover-rent retail or short-WAULT logistics until monthly tonnage stabilizes. You’ll preserve IRR by sequencing, not by betting on broad price growth.
Containers are the economy’s pulse. With PoB TEUs firming, city-fringe sheds have clarity of demand and limited new stock. That combination supports stable cap rates and modest rent drift. Your risk is policy on customs/tariffs or a fuel shock that hits distribution costs.
Arrivals feed beds; beds feed spend. The pax line is the lead indicator that both categories share. Use it in your models as a monthly absorption driver, not a rear-view stat. If arrivals dip ≥15% m/m for two months, tighten leasing assumptions immediately.
Beirut’s permit-to-start gap is real. That keeps deliveries thin into mid-2026, but it doesn’t guarantee rent growth when contracts are dollarized and “Actual rent” barely moves. Success here is product-market fit: the right size, the right finish, the correct address.
A PMI in the low 50s helps sentiment. It doesn’t fill towers on its own. Focus on credit-worthy SMEs, education/health tenants, and government-adjacent users. Power and connectivity still decide who signs and stays.
If you’re acquiring logistics:
Model flat to +1% rent growth, stable vacancy, and CPI-linked step-ups. Use shorter WAULTs to capture upside if TEUs accelerate. Under a conservative cap rate, your unlevered IRR comes from income durability and light capital spending, not timing beta.
If you’re leasing prime retail:
Your goal is speed to trade, not squeezing the last dollar: structure step-rents and turnover components. Assume steady footfall but maintain a two-month arrivals brake in your sensitivity.
If you’re considering hotel exposure:
Favor asset-light or hybrid-power operations. Keep AOR bands 52–58% with ±5pp sensitivity to security and flight schedules. For IRR, watch energy costs; they swing margins far more than ADR nudges.
If you’re building or selling residential:
Keep USD rent growth modest and absorption realistic—phase construction. Design smaller, efficient units in prime sub-markets where day-to-day services and transport are strongest. Your best risk control is velocity—pre-sales and staged handovers.
If you’re holding office:
Play defense-with-options. Improve power resilience, connectivity, and parking. Price early renewals and offer capex-light concessions. Track PMI and BDD milestones; a stronger corporate cycle could open a window, but don’t underwrite it today.
These are simple, high-frequency toggles you can wire into your models. They’re also your flip test: if all three turn against you, shift to a defensive stance for the next 60–90 days.
We apply a Two-Source Rule on decisive metrics. For example, CAS CPI is checked against a secondary aggregator; BDL FX and interbank sit on primary pages; Port of Beirut volumes are corroborated by operator-quoted trade outlets; RHIA counts are confirmed by industry press when the operator’s page is intermittent; BRITE carries OEA permits until direct CSVs are open; Tripoli port tonnage relies on OEPT digests plus local press. For any proxy link, we mark Medium confidence and state the exact upgrade path (DLRC registrations CSV; RHIA/DGCA monthly CSV; OEPT monthly TEU/tonnage/vessels; landlord tenancy ledgers).
If you’re allocating dollars in Lebanon over the next six months, follow the flows. Logistics is your most defensible income play; prime retail and hospitality benefit as long as passengers hold; residential rewards disciplined product and phasing; office is a renewals story until a clearer corporate catalyst emerges.
Your underwriting posture should be calm and selective: CPI-linked steps over headline rent bets; WAULT flexibility where demand is proven; capex-light actions to protect NOI; and three clear signposts that tell you when to pivot. Use the scorecard below to benchmark assets against the city-sector peers we ranked, then set your own traffic-light for go, hold, or wait.
If you want a deeper breakdown—sub-market rent bands, absorption ladders, or a waterfall from NOI to levered IRR for a live deal—contact us. We’ll map your asset to the signals that actually move cash flow in Lebanon.
Lebanon’s real estate is navigating a rare mix: stabilized USD/LBP accounting anchors, improving passenger traffic, and resilient container flows—alongside soft credit and uneven port operations in the North. Our six-month view focuses on underwritable signals with a strict two-source standard and a 12-month freshness guard.
The Gap-Scorecard weights demand, supply (6–18m), pricing power, affordability, liquidity, and policy. Beirut’s Industrial & Logistics and Prime Retail take the lead on measurable flows. Tripoli’s outlook improves once the port’s cadence stabilizes and direct datasets open.
The composite blends six levers: Demand (arrivals, PMI, trade), Supply (6–18m pipeline via permits/starts), Pricing Power (rents & sales), Affordability (USD incomes vs asking), Liquidity (registrations/lease comps), and Policy/Utilities (FX anchor, power/fiber). Scores are out of 5.
| Top-5 (Final Score) | City | Sector | Score | Why now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beirut | Industrial & Logistics | 3.25 | Port TEUs steady (79,173 Aug-2025; 80,676 Sep-2025) |
| 2 | Beirut | Retail (Prime) | 3.25 | RHIA pax 929,815 (Aug-2025, +38.9% y/y) + Souks lease-up |
| 3 | Beirut | Hospitality | 3.25 | Passenger base supports shoulder season; opex-hedged plays |
| 4 | Beirut | Residential | 3.00 | “Actual rent” CPI +0.20% m/m (Oct-2025); deliveries limited |
| 5 | Beirut | Office | 2.85 | PMI >50; BDD-C timing risk |
| Metric | Latest | As-of | Primary | Corroboration | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI — Headline (m/m) | 3.23% m/m | 2025-10-31 | CAS | TradingEconomics | High |
| CPI — “Actual rent” (m/m) | 0.20% m/m | 2025-10-31 | CAS PDF | countryeconomy | Medium |
| Interbank LBP (EOP) | 9.44% | 2025-09-30 | BDL | TradingEconomics | High |
| Official USD/LBP mid | 89,500 LBP/USD | 2025-11-17 | BDL XLS | ABL | High |
| Claims on Private Sector | 404,373 LBP bn | 2025-08-31 | ABL | BRITE | High |
| Cement Deliveries | 238,693 tons | 2025-04-30 | BDL | Credit Libanais | High |
| Imports (CIF) | 164,823,378 LBP mn | 2025-04-30 | BDL | Lebanese Customs | High |
| Port of Beirut — TEUs | 79,173 (Aug) / 80,676 (Sep) | 2025-08-31 / 2025-09-30 | Port of Beirut | PortsEurope | High |
| RHIA passengers | 929,815 pax | 2025-08-31 | L’Orient Today (operator) | CAPA | Medium |
| Tourist Arrivals | 150,497 visitors | 2025-09-30 | BRITE | TradingEconomics | Medium |
| Electricity Production (EDL) | 458 mn kWh | 2025-03-31 | BDL | TradingEconomics | High |
Read-through: Pricing stability and strong flows support Beirut’s prime retail, hospitality and logistics. Credit remains tight; pipeline handovers lag permits.
| Sector | Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | “Actual rent” +0.20% m/m (Oct-2025); permits area 53,504 m² (Sep-2025) | USD rents 0%–1.5% (Inference) | CPI-rents; FX anchor 89,500; deliveries lag; ±0.75pp | Medium |
| Office | PMI 50.6 (Oct-2025); BDD-C ~84,000 m² BUA | Prime rents −1%–+1% (Inference) | PMI trend; grid stability; BDD delivery; ±1pp | Medium |
| Retail (Prime) | RHIA 929,815 pax (Aug); Beirut Souks 62 shops (Dec-2024) | USD rents 0%–2% (Inference) | Footfall; re-tenanting cadence; ±1.5pp | Medium |
| Industrial & Logistics | TEUs 79,173 (Aug) / 80,676 (Sep) | Warehouse rents 0%–1% (Inference) | TEUs; customs/tariffs; ±1pp | High |
| Hospitality | RHIA +38.9% y/y (Aug) | AOR 52%–58%; ADR USD 130–170 (Inference) | Pax cadence; security; ±5pp AOR | Medium |
| Alt-Assets | OGERO FTTx live (2025 plan); EDL output 458 mn kWh (Mar) | DC colocation: flat (Inference) | Fiber + hybrid power; capex; outages | Medium |
| Sector | Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | Permits area 159,266 m²; count 295 (Sep-2025) | USD rents 0%–1% (Inference) | Permits vs starts; port cadence; ±0.75pp | Medium |
| Office | TSEZ admin support active (2025) | Rents −1%–+1% (Inference) | PMI; TSEZ milestones; ±1pp | Medium |
| Retail | North CPI R&H index (mid-2025) supportive | Rents −1%–+1% (Inference) | OEPT clearance; CPI trend; ±1.5pp | Medium |
| Industrial & Logistics | OEPT tonnage 1.588 mn t YTD (−23.6% y/y) | Rents −1%–+1%; occupancy flat to −50 bps (Inference) | Tonnage & vessels; customs; ±1pp | Medium |
| Hospitality | R&H proxy steady (North CPI) | AOR 48%–55%; ADR USD 85–115 (Inference) | Domestic travel; port ops; ±4pp AOR | Medium |
| Alt-Assets | FTTx rolling; power shallow | Cold-chain: flat to +1pp (Inference) | OEPT tonnage; outages | Medium |
Test: Compare CAS “Actual rent” vs headline CPI; confirm FX anchor. Evidence: +0.20% m/m (rent) vs +3.23% m/m (headline) in Oct-2025 (CAS PDF); official USD/LBP 89,500 (Nov-17, 2025) (BDL). Finding: Spike unlikely; base-case 0%–1.5% (Inference; ±0.75pp).
Test: RHIA pax + PoB TEUs + Souks lease-up. Evidence: 929,815 pax (Aug-2025) (L’Orient Today); TEUs 79,173/80,676 (PoB; PortsEurope); Souks 62 shops (Dec-2024) (L’Orient Today). Finding: Demand & activation are expansionary; underwrite flat to +2%.
| Rank | City | Sector | Score | Why now | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Beirut | Industrial & Logistics | 3.25 | TEUs resilient; limited quality stock | High |
| 2 | Beirut | Retail (Prime) | 3.25 | Pax momentum + re-tenanting | Medium |
| 3 | Beirut | Hospitality | 3.25 | Passenger base for shoulder season | Medium |
| 4 | Beirut | Residential | 3.00 | Muted rent CPI; thin handovers | Medium |
| 5 | Beirut | Office | 2.85 | PMI>50; hold/renewals | Medium |
Two-Source Rule: each decisive metric cites the primary authority and a Tier-1 corroboration. CRAAP ≥80 target. Freshness Guard = 12 months; older items are flagged with upgrade paths (e.g., DLRC registrations CSV; RHIA/DGCA monthly CSV; OEPT monthly TEU/tonnage/vessels). Inference bands label drivers and ± sensitivities. Links are do-follow to authority PDF/press endpoints.
The Lebanon Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 is a six-month, investor-grade guide ranking city×sector opportunities by demand, supply (6–18m pipeline), pricing power, affordability, liquidity, and policy/utility context. It’s built for professional investors, developers, lenders, and advisors who underwrite cash flows (NOI, WAULT, AOR/ADR, absorption) and need a defensible, source-audited view.
The outlook points to Beirut Industrial & Logistics and Beirut Prime Retail as top risk-adjusted plays in the Lebanon Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2. Containers (TEUs) and passenger flows (pax) are firm, supporting stable occupancy and modest rent drift. Hospitality in Beirut is the third near-term opportunity if arrivals hold. Tripoli is selective: permits are active, but freight softness argues for staged execution.
In the Lebanon Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2, permits ≠ handovers. Beirut shows a permit-to-start friction; prioritize smaller, high-fit products with flexible phasing. In Tripoli, go entitlement-first, then start only when port cadence stabilizes. Across both cities, lock in power solutions early and design for efficient opex to protect IRR.
Based on the scorecard’s drivers and monthly series:
The Lebanon Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 tracks three “switches”:
The Lebanon Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 assumes USD-quoted leases with an official FX anchor that stabilizes invoicing. Headline CPI can move OPEX, but “Actual rent” CPI is the better rent-pressure signal. If “Actual rent” stays muted, expect flat USD rents even as headline CPI volatility rises. Use CPI-linked step-ups and turnover rent in prime retail to balance inflation capture and tenant health.
From the Lebanon Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2:
The Lebanon Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 enforces a Two-Source Rule: primary authority (CAS, BDL, Port of Beirut, RHIA/DGCA, OEA) plus a Tier-1 corroboration (e.g., industry press, bank research). A 12-month freshness guard applies. Metrics that rely on carriers (e.g., BRITE, press) are labeled Medium with explicit upgrade paths (e.g., DLRC registrations CSV; RHIA/DGCA monthly CSV; OEPT monthly TEUs).
Price in USD, but model FX basis scenarios. Favor income-defensive assets (logistics, prime retail) where flows are measurable. For development, stage funding, and link draws to objective signposts. For acquisitions, build utility resilience into underwriting and set KPI-based earn-outs where appropriate. The Lebanon Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 helps you anchor those terms to monthly, verifiable data.
Use the outlook’s footfall (pax) and inventory (TEUs) to rank catchments, then compare time-to-trade: access, visibility, co-tenancy, and fit-out readiness. Underwrite step-rents + turnover, not headline rate maximization. The site that opens faster with lower downtime usually wins on IRR, even if the face rent is 1–2% lower.
Wire three inputs: pax, TEUs, CPI “Actual rent.” Map each to revenue lines (retail sales uplift, hotel AOR/ADR, resi rent step-ups), set the flip thresholds above, and create red/amber/green toggles that automatically adjust rent bands, absorption, and renewal risk. That makes your IC memo responsive and evidence-based.
If you need a sub-market deep-dive (lease comps, absorption ladders, or NOI→levered IRR waterfalls), contact us, and we’ll extend the Lebanon Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 pack to your specific asset.
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