If you develop, invest, or advise in Jordan, you’ve just received a rare combination: policy easing, anchored inflation, and operator KPIs pointing up. The Central Bank of Jordan (البنك المركزي الأردني — CBJ) cut the main policy rate to 6.00% · 2025-11-02, headline CPI is 1.74% YoY · 2025-09-30, and logistics have surprised to the upside with Aqaba Container Terminal printing a record 94,541 TEUs · 2025-09-30, followed by 88,792 TEUs · 2025-10-31 (+24.4% YoY). Air arrivals are accelerating too: QAIA processed 836,066 passengers · 2025-10-31 and 8.139m YTD (+9%).
Those are the conditions that feed cap rates, absorption, and ultimately your IRR.
The question is simple: Where should you focus for the next six months? Our country scorecard—built from official sources (DOS – دائرة الإحصاءات العامة, DLS – دائرة الأراضي والمساحة, CBJ) plus audited operator prints—maps the opportunity set. As the scorecard below shows, the top of the table is not where many expected it to be.
Think of the scorecard as your deal triage. It blends six pillars:
Each city×sector gets a 1–5 score. We apply two refinements that matter to underwriting:
The goal is not to predict to the basis point. It’s to prioritize, so your next hour of work flows to the projects with the best risk-adjusted path to rent growth, occupancy, or yield compression.
Two strong prints matter more than one headline. Sep 2025: record 94,541 TEUs. Oct 2025: 88,792 TEUs (+24.4% YoY). That’s throughput you can lease against. On the ground, this usually shows up first as faster turns in cross-dock and short-dwell storage, then as rent tension in well-located, serviced stock. On a six-month view, we see prime warehouse rents +2% → +5%, with vacancy tightening by up to 50 bps. Inference: upper-band bias if TEU 3-mma stays >+10% YoY. Sensitivity: −150 bps on rent growth if TEUs wobble for two consecutive months.
Amman doesn’t need a record at its own gate to benefit. Strong Aqaba flow feeds last-mile and regional distribution up the corridor. With construction inputs tame (WPI +1.08% YoY · 2025-Q2) and finance nudged easier (policy 6.00%; interbank O/N ~5.85% · 2025 10; 3M ~6.50% · 2025-11-24), we expect prime rents +2% → +4% and stable-to-tighter vacancy in East Amman/Sahab/Abu Alanda. The yield story? Mild compression potential (≈25 bps) if interbank drifts −25–50 bps from the October average.
Cold-chain demand correlates tightly with trade. With TEUs up, the utilization curve for temperature-controlled space steepens.
Inference: rents +1% → +3% for quality, power-reliable boxes. The digital-infrastructure angle also improves with the launch of the Aqaba Digital Hub; power allocations and the carrier mix will determine how quickly this converts to contracted revenue.
Sensitivity: watch NEPCO peak-load headroom and operator spec sheets; confidence is Medium until monthly utility KPIs are public.
Amman’s advantage lies in its density and connectivity. Existing Tier-III footprints (banking, telco) and urban demand for healthcare, along with last-mile cold-chain support, drive a 0% → +3% pricing trend for well-specified shells. The gating factors are power (allocations, redundancy) and backhaul (TRC), if you’re underwriting DC or cold-chain shells; price delivery risk is more complex than rent risk.
The narrative said “winter slump”; the data said “not yet.” QAIA Oct: 836,066 passengers (+23.8% YoY) and 8.139m YTD (+9%); AQJ charters restarted in November. Weekend occupancy in Aqaba clocked ~68% · Aug 2025. Our six-month band is occupancy 61% → 72% with ADR 0% → +3%, skewed to waterfront prime. Sensitivity: occupancy −200–300 bps if charter cadence slips.
If you’re allocating capital, the HBU Map says I&L first—Aqaba if you want throughput optionality and TEU-linked upside, Amman if you want last-mile resilience. Alt-Assets are your runner-up, especially cold-chain and select healthcare shells tied to power and access.
If you’re developing in Aqaba, prioritize serviced, pre-let warehouse clusters; phase land take-down around the estate milestone, and your leasing cadence. In Amman, defend truck geometry and turnaround even at the cost of a few square meters of GLA; it pays for itself in rent and rollover risk.
If you’re asset-managing, use the rate cut and anchored CPI to renegotiate indexation clauses and extend maturities. In hospitality, protect payroll flexibility; in retail, lean into data-sharing with tenants to tighten turnover rent audits.
Cap-rates and IRR: With policy at 6.00% and interbank easing at the margin, prime I&L cap-rates have 25 bps of compression potential if the O/N→3M basis narrows. Model a flat cap-rate case and a −25 bps case; the latter often adds 100–150 bps to levered IRR on stabilized warehouse deals when combined with +2–4% rent growth.
Absorption: The demand side has real-time proxies you can track: TEUs for I&L, QAIA/AQJ passengers for hospitality/retail, permits/licensed area for supply risk. Set trip-wires in your models—e.g., “Reduce rent growth by 100 bps if TEU YoY prints < +5% twice.”
The top five are Aqaba I&L (3.70), Amman I&L (3.50), Aqaba Alt-Assets (3.40), Amman Alt-Assets (3.35), and Aqaba Hospitality (3.35). Everything else clusters between 2.90–3.22, with the office constrained by data quality (agency panels pending) and education limited by its long-cycle dynamics. Your next step is to validate each thesis at the asset level—power and access for I&L/ I&L/Alt-Assets; air schedules and events for hospitality; permit/tenancy evidence for residential.
Over the next six months, Jordan’s investable edge is operational. You don’t need heroic macro assumptions to win; follow the throughput and the passengers, and avoid over-building ahead of power or access. If you’re picking battles:
Want the full detail—the underlying CSVs, evidence cards, and the scorecard math? Contact us for a deeper breakdown or to plug the dataset into your own models. The chart will make more sense now that you know why the leaders are leading.
Jordan enters late-2025 with policy easing, anchored inflation, and solid operator KPIs. The Central Bank of Jordan (البنك المركزي الأردني — CBJ) cut the main rate to 6.00% on 2 Nov 2025, while headline CPI sits below 2%. Logistics and air travel are firm: Aqaba Container Terminal recorded an all-time monthly high in September and a strong October, and QAIA traffic accelerated in October.
The Gap-Scorecard blends demand, supply (6–18m), pricing power, affordability, liquidity, and policy. It ranks city×sector opportunities for the next six months. Use it to prioritize pipeline, leasing strategy, and capital deployment.
The composite weighs six pillars: Demand, Supply (6–18m), Pricing Power (rents/sales), Affordability, Liquidity, and Policy. Scores run 1–5. We apply a confidence adjustment where KPIs are gated or proxy-based, and a contrarian delta where market data contradicts consensus narratives.
| Rank | City | Sector | Score | Why it ranks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aqaba | Industrial & Logistics | 3.70 | Record Sep TEUs (94,541); Oct +24.4% YoY; estate milestone due. |
| 2 | Amman | Industrial & Logistics | 3.50 | Last-mile leverage; benign rates/inflation; steady demand. |
| 3 | Aqaba | Alt-Assets | 3.40 | Cold-chain/DC tailwinds; digital-hub ramp (operator specs pending). |
| 4 | Amman | Alt-Assets | 3.35 | Power/fiber context; emerging DC/cold-chain shells. |
| 5 | Aqaba | Hospitality | 3.35 | Oct QAIA surge; winter charter restart to AQJ; solid weekend occupancy. |
| Metric | Latest · Unit · As-of | Primary | Corroboration | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate (Main) | 6.00% · 2025-11-02 | CBJ | CBJ Press (30-10-2025) | High |
| Interbank O/N avg (prev. month) | 5.85% · 2025-10 | CBJ Indicators | ABJ (JODIBOR context) | High |
| JODIBOR 3-month | 6.50% · 2025-11-24 | ABJ | Housing Bank schedule | Medium |
| CPI headline (YoY) | 1.74% · 2025-09-30 | DOS PDF | DOS page | High |
| CPI — “Actual rentals” (YoY) | 3.30% · 2025-10-31 | DOS (host series) | TradingEconomics | Medium |
| Wholesale/Construction proxy (WPI YoY) | +1.08% · 2025-06-30 | DOS | Jordan Times | High |
| FX reserves | $24,051.5m · 2025-10-31 | CBJ Indicators | Jordan Times | High |
| Credit facilities (banks) | JD 35.7bn; +3.3% YoY · 2025-08-31 | CBJ Press | CBJ Monthly Dev. | High |
| ACT throughput (Aqaba) | 94,541 TEUs · 2025-09-30 | APMT/ACT | Jordan Times | High |
| QAIA passengers | 836,066 (Oct); 8,138,748 YTD · 2025-10-31 | Petra (AIG) | Jordan Times | High |
Read-through: gentle easing, anchored CPI, strong TEUs and air traffic → stable-to-firmer I&L and hospitality; residential pricing sideways; selective cap-rate compression contingent on interbank.
| Sector | Now | Inference (6m band) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | Rent CPI +3.30% YoY · 2025-10-31 | Rents +1.5% → +3.0% | Indexation; policy −25 bps; ±50 bps vs 3M JODIBOR | Medium |
| Office | Flight-to-quality to Abdali; limited near-term supply | Prime rent 0% → +2%; Vac −50 → +50 bps | Interbank path; pre-leasing; agency panel | Medium |
| Retail | QAIA pax up; CPI 1.74% YoY | Prime base rent +1% → +3% | Footfall; tenant margins; seasonality | Medium |
| Industrial & Logistics | Last-mile stable; build-costs +1.08% YoY | Prime rent +2% → +4% | ACT flow spillover; fuel/logistics; supply cadence | High |
| Hospitality | QAIA Oct +23.8% YoY | Occ 58% → 66%; ADR 0% → +3% | Airline capacity; events; regional risks | Medium |
| Alt-Assets | DC footprints present; NEPCO peak-load signpost | Colo 0% → +3%; Cold-chain +1% → +3% | Power allocations; fiber backhaul | Medium |
| Sector | Now | Inference (6m band) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | Rent CPI proxy +3.30% YoY | Rents +1.5% → +3.5% | Tourism spillover; ±0.5 pp vs rent CPI | Medium |
| Office | Thin stock; admin/logistics demand steady | Prime 0% → +2%; Vac flat → −50 bps | Fit-out costs; tenant pipeline | Medium |
| Retail | Weekend occ. ~68% (proxy) | Prime base rent +1% → +3% | Charters; waterfront seasonality | Medium |
| Industrial & Logistics | Sep record; Oct +24.4% YoY | Prime rent +2% → +5% | TEUs 3-mma; estate inauguration; trucking turns | High |
| Hospitality | Charter restart Nov; strong Oct air-side | Occ 61% → 72%; ADR 0% → +3% | Charter cadence; events | Medium |
| Alt-Assets | Cold-chain/DC uplift; digital-hub launched | Colo 0% → +2%; Cold-chain +1% → +3% | Utility allocations; operator specs | Medium |
Myth 1: Red Sea disruptions choked Jordan’s logistics; I&L rents will soften.
Test: Track ACT TEUs Sep–Oct with mirrors.
Evidence: Sep record 94,541 TEUs (APMT/ACT); Oct 88,792 (+24.4% YoY, Petra; Zawya).
Finding: Momentum beats the slump narrative.
Implication: Aqaba I&L prime rent band held at +2% → +5% with upper-band bias.
Myth 2: Winter 2025/26 tourism will slump.
Test: QAIA Oct + Jan–Oct; AQJ charter restart.
Evidence: QAIA Oct 836,066 (+23.8% YoY) and 8.139m YTD (+9%) (Petra; JT); first winter charter to AQJ landed in November (Petra).
Finding: Demand is strengthening into winter.
Implication: Amman occupancy 58%–66%; raise Aqaba to 61%–72%.
| Rank | City | Sector | Score | Why now | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aqaba | Industrial & Logistics | 3.70 | Two strong months + estate milestone | High |
| 2 | Amman | Industrial & Logistics | 3.50 | Last-mile leverage; benign macro | High |
| 3 | Aqaba | Alt-Assets | 3.40 | Cold-chain/DC demand; digital-hub | Medium |
| 4 | Amman | Alt-Assets | 3.35 | DC shells near power/fiber | Medium |
| 5 | Aqaba | Hospitality | 3.35 | Charters + waterfront seasonality | Medium |
Two-Source Rule on decisive metrics: primary authority plus Tier-1 corroboration. CRAAP ≥80. Freshness Guard 12 months. Where a KPI is gated (e.g., DOS “Actual rentals” sub-series; city permits; office broker panels), confidence is set to Medium and the exact extract needed is stated. All links are public and do-follow. Inference is labeled and includes drivers and ± sensitivities.
COUNTRY: Jordan · PERIOD: 2025H2 · CITIES: Amman, Aqaba · SECTORS: Residential, Office, Retail, Industrial & Logistics, Hospitality, Education, Alt-Assets
The Jordan Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 is a six-month, source-audited playbook for developers, investors, and lenders. It blends macro prints (CBJ rates, CPI) and operator KPIs (ACT TEUs, QAIA passengers) with city/sector scorecards to rank opportunities in Amman and Aqaba. It’s designed for underwriting, pipeline sequencing, and board-level capital allocation.
Top-scoring opportunities are:
In the Jordan Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2, we use labeled Inference bands:
Three triggers:
Every decisive metric follows a Two-Source Rule (primary authority + Tier-1 corroboration) and a 12-month Freshness Guard. Where a KPI is gated (e.g., DOS “Actual rentals for housing”), we mark Medium confidence and specify the exact extract to upgrade. This powers a defensible Jordan Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 for institutional underwriting.
The scorecard in the Jordan Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 weights Demand, Supply (6–18m), Pricing Power, Affordability, Liquidity, Policy. Use it to:
We anchor on headline CPI ~1.74% YoY (Sep) and a rent-CPI proxy ~3.30% YoY (Oct). For leases, we model renewals closer to rent-CPI; for yields, we assess the spread to interbank. This inflation framework is baked into the 2025 H2 sector bands for Amman and Aqaba.
Follow the Jordan real estate outlook 2025 H2 signposts:
Per the Jordan Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2, Amman rides QAIA momentum; Aqaba gets charter-led seasonality. Base cases: Amman 58–66% occupancy; Aqaba 61–72%, ADR 0–3%. Monitor airline capacity, events, and month-on-month pace.
From the Jordan Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2:
The 2025 H2 Jordan real estate outlook ships with CSV logs by gate and an Evidence Pack (JSONL + source log). Files mirror Macro, City, Sector, Gap-Scorecard, and Evidence data so underwriting models can ingest them immediately.
Cite once with bilingual labels to avoid ambiguity: CBJ (البنك المركزي الأردني), DOS (دائرة الإحصاءات العامة), DLS (دائرة الأراضي والمساحة), GAM (أمانة عمّان الكبرى). This convention is standard across the Jordan Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 and supports verifiable, do-follow sourcing.
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