The signal changed this quarter. Suez Canal receipts rose +17.5% · % YoY · Oct‑2025, and Alexandria Container & Cargo Handling moved 80,917 · TEUs · Aug‑2025.
Those two facts, paired with policy rates on hold at 21/22% · 20‑Nov‑2025 and a 364‑day T‑bill at 25.440% · 17‑Nov‑2025, set the tone for underwriting. For you, that means near‑port sheds and prime inland logistics look better on a risk‑adjusted basis than most other ideas over the next six months.
At the same time, headline CPI printed 12.5% · YoY · Oct‑2025, with “imputed rents” flagged as a contributor. That supports nominal rent growth but challenges affordability in non‑prime residential and squeezes tenant fit‑out budgets in office.
You may be asking: “So where does the next EGP actually earn its spread?” Read this guide first, then review the scorecard chart—explained below—to prioritise your pipeline.
Our country scorecard ranks city × sector opportunities on six pillars that mirror your underwriting model: Demand, Supply (6–18m), Pricing Power, Affordability, Liquidity, and Policy. We then apply a macro tailwind factor (rates, FX, ports throughput, air traffic) and a confidence adjustment that discounts proxy‑heavy metrics. The horizon is six months—long enough to reposition allocations, short enough to respect today’s carry costs. Standards used: Two‑Source Rule, CRAAP ≥80, freshness guard 12 months; CBE — البنك المركزي المصري and CAPMAS — الجهاز المركزي للتعبئة العامة والإحصاء are our anchor authorities.
As the scorecard below shows, the Top‑5 for Dec‑2025 → May‑2026 are:
Below is the “why,” with the implications for yield, IRR, and execution.
Context. Logistics demand is normalising off the back of Suez and improving container flows. Inland Prime sheds in 6th of October/New October remain tight, with occupancy around the mid‑90s and limited power‑ready stock. For you, that means absorption visibility and less tenant churn.
Execution. If you’re developing in this sector, bias to spec‑lite, power‑ready (≥5 MVA) boxes of 10–15k sqm, 10–12 m clear, CPI‑linked uplifts, and 3–5‑year WAULTs. Underwrite: nominal rent +5–10% (Inference), with sensitivity ±200 bps for a ±2‑ppt swing in input‑cost CPI. This profile improves lease‑up velocity and supports stabilised yield even with T‑bill >25%.
Risk. Energy tariffs and any shock to canal receipts would soften the rent band; keep a TEU nowcast on your desk.
Context. Port data is the tell. ALCN 80,917 · TEUs · Aug‑2025 and the +17.5% YoY Suez print point to corridor recovery, but tightness is not uniform. Our contrarian test shows Damietta’s capacity additions can cap rent re‑rating even if volumes rise.
Execution. Target reefer‑adjacent, gate‑efficient units of 5–10k sqm in the Dekheila–Amreya–Borg El‑Arab arc. Underwrite: +3–5% nominal rent growth (Inference), with ±100 bps sensitivity to monthly TEUs. For IRR, the story is faster turn‑time, not just headline rent.
Risk. Capacity ramps or yard‑turn delays could flatten absorption; request operator‑level lease comps to tighten your cap‑rate input.
Context. Cairo International Airport handled ~2.586m pax in Oct‑2025, and city press data cite ~71% occ in Q2. No one metric secures RevPAR, but the pax + events combination is supportive.
Execution. If you’re repositioning, lean into upper‑upscale, conference‑capable assets with energy retrofits. Underwrite: Occ 68–72%, ADR +5–8% (EGP) (Inference). That yields cash‑on‑cash resilience while you wait for lower rates.
Risk. Tourism sentiment and airline capacity. Upgrade the read with STR/CoStar or EHA monthly series.
Context. Prime and super‑regional rents rose by 7.6% and 7.2% YoY (Q2‑2025); ~86,700 sqm remained in the 2025 pipeline. Prime landlords with strong curation kept net effective rents stable despite cost pressures.
Execution. If you hold operating malls, renewals are your lever. Push base + turnover structures and protect fit‑out covenants. Expect prime base +4–6% (Inference) where anchors are stable.
Risk. Real income and import costs; monitor CPI‑core and FX for margin pass‑through stress on tenants.
Context. Vacancy sits near 7.4% (prime ~4.5%) with reported Q2 additions ~83k sqm. But the funding side bites: a 25.440% T-bill rate changes tenant calculus and capex timing.
Execution. A barbell strategy works: prime New/West Cairo Grade‑A with ESG upgrades to win migrations from legacy B‑grade; avoid fringe unless you can finance capex and re‑tenant. Underwrite: prime +3–6% nominal rent (Inference); fringe flat to −2%.
Risk. Shadow stock/sublease. Track pre‑lets, not only gross absorption.
CPI supports nominal pricing, but affordability is the constraint. In Cairo, ~7,300 units hit the market in Q2‑2025; FRA mortgage company volumes rose EGP 25.1 bn YTD through August. Rents likely +5–8% (Inference) while sales +1–3% unless mortgage cadence accelerates. In Alexandria, use CPI‑housing and permits cadence as proxies; the Jan‑2024 population base is Currency↓ and should be refreshed. If you’re building, phase smaller ticket sizes and pre‑sell packages to reduce working‑capital drag.
The canal + TEU combo provides your demand map. Cairo’s inland tightness is a stock quality story; Alexandria’s near‑port opportunity is a turn‑time story. If you’re acquiring a brownfield, focus on power availability, yard depth, and reefer plug density. If you’re chasing IRR, the time saved at the gate often outperforms a headline‑rent hunt.
Footfall ≠ pricing power. The spread you care about is net effective. Tenants will press for fit‑out contributions as FX costs creep. You may be asking, “Should I trade rent for term?” If the covenant is solid, yes, but bake CPI‑linked escalators and turnover clauses.
Your real competitor is the risk‑free yield. At 25%+, many occupiers defer expansion unless the move reduces opex or improves productivity. If you’re developing, keep efficient floorplates, plug‑and‑play fit‑out options, and ESG credentials to shorten decision cycles. If you’re holding legacy stock, budget capex per sqm and upgrade MEP before chasing rent.
The air‑pax trend is supportive, but key growth and seasonality matter. If you’re considering value‑add, F&B optimisation and conference facilities offer the cleanest NOI lift, while ADR benefits from FX‑driven inbound.
Policy caps (bands +6–25%) set your pricing frame. If you’re developing a mid‑fee private school, location within growing catchments and transport links is decisive; approvals cadence is your critical path.
For DCs, power and fiber are the bottlenecks; Africa50–Raya capex confirms momentum, but allocations must match announced IT load. For cold‑chain, Alexandria’s reefer throughput is your demand anchor; tie rents to service‑level guarantees.
Capital allocation. Over the next six months, the base case is to overweight I&L—Cairo for structural tightness, Alexandria for near‑port edge. Market‑weight hospitality in Cairo, where pax and events are visible. Selective retail in dominant schemes. Barbell office toward prime only.
Yield and IRR. With T‑bill at 25.440%, your unlevered yield needs credible rent growth or execution alpha (faster lease‑up, lower capex per sqm, shorter voids). In I&L, turn‑time and power availability deliver that alpha. In the office, green retrofits lower opex and defend rent.
Absorption. Expect prime office and prime sheds to absorb faster than headline demand implies. Residential absorption benefits from smaller unit sizes and staggered handovers; it avoids considerable, single‑tranche exposure to FX‑sensitive finishes.
Risk management. Run three signposts monthly: CBE MPC/MoF auctions, SCA receipts + ALCN TEUs, and CPI services (rents). If any two break trend together, e.g., rates rise while SCA softens, pause rent growth assumptions and keep liquidity for value‑add plays.
If you’re developing now, keep spec‑lite designs, phased utilities, and CPI‑linked leases to protect IRR. If you’re acquiring, give yourself a lease‑up buffer and prioritise assets with power certainty.
Egypt’s next leg is a logistics‑led re‑rating with prime‑only office resilience. The data is your map; your edge is execution. Put capital where throughput and power meet tight stock. Keep barbell exposure in the office, and use hospitality selectively as a cash‑flow stabiliser. Residential needs ticket‑size engineering rather than bold pricing to keep velocity.
Before you open the scorecard chart, decide the question it should answer for you:
Then review the chart and allocate accordingly. If you’d like a deeper breakdown, by submarket, shed spec, or WAULT mix, contact us, and we’ll run your portfolio through the same framework with operator‑level comps and sensitivity bands.
Standards & packs applied: Reference/Global packs, Two‑Source Rule, CRAAP ≥80, 12‑month freshness guard; proxies labeled with upgrade paths (e.g., STR city series, DPA TEU CSV, CAPMAS rents sub‑index). Evidence schema and gate discipline enforced.
Rates are high and liquidity is selective, yet logistics signals have firmed. Suez Canal receipts rose +17.5% · % YoY · Oct‑2025 and Alexandria’s ALCN handled 80,917 · TEUs · Aug‑2025—two green shoots for near‑port warehouses. The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE — البنك المركزي المصري) held the policy corridor at 21/22/21.5 · % · 20‑Nov‑2025, while the 364‑day T‑bill printed 25.440 · % · 17‑Nov‑2025.
Our six‑month scorecard ranks city×sector opportunities on demand, supply (6–18m), pricing power, affordability, liquidity, and policy. We apply the Two‑Source Rule, show value·unit·as‑of, and label any inference with drivers and sensitivities.
| Rank | City | Sector | Final score | Why now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cairo | Industrial & Logistics | 3.57 / 5 | SCA recovery + structurally tight inland sheds. |
| 2 | Alexandria | Industrial & Logistics | 3.35 / 5 | ALCN TEUs normalizing; near‑port demand. |
| 3 | Cairo | Hospitality | 3.31 / 5 | Air‑pax & events; selective rate power. |
| 4 | Cairo | Retail | 3.30 / 5 | Prime centers hold rents; curated mix. |
| 5 | Cairo | Office (prime) | 3.27 / 5 | Barbell: prime ↑, fringe flat/soft. |
Ministry labels shown once: CBE — البنك المركزي المصري; CAPMAS — الجهاز المركزي للتعبئة العامة والإحصاء; SCA — هيئة قناة السويس.
| Metric | Latest (value · unit) | As‑of | Primary | Corroboration | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy corridor (deposit/lending/main) | 21/22/21.5 · % | 20‑Nov‑2025 | CBE MPC | Reuters | High |
| 364‑day T‑bill | 25.440 · % | 17‑Nov‑2025 | MoF | CBE Auctions | High |
| Urban headline CPI (YoY) | 12.5 · % | 31‑Oct‑2025 | CBE Inflation | Reuters | High |
| Core CPI (YoY) | 12.1 · % | 31‑Oct‑2025 | CBE CPI note | DNE | High |
| Imputed rents signal (YoY) | ~17.5 · % | 31‑Oct‑2025 | CBE note | DNE | Medium |
| USD/EGP (official buy/sell) | 47.5777/47.6777 · EGP/USD | 23‑Nov‑2025 | CBE FX | UN Ops | High |
| Net International Reserves | 50.071 · USD bn | 31‑Oct‑2025 | CBE NIR | Xinhua | High |
| Suez Canal receipts (YoY) | +17.5 · % | 31‑Oct‑2025 | SCA | Ahram Online | High |
| ALCN throughput | 80,917 · TEUs | 31‑Aug‑2025 | ALCN Statistics | Alexandria Port (APA) | High |
| Cairo Airport passengers | 2,586,061 · pax | 31‑Oct‑2025 | Egyptian Gazette | Travel & Tour World | Medium |
| S&P Global Egypt PMI | 49.2 · index | 31‑Oct‑2025 | S&P PMI | Reuters | High |
Read‑through: funding costs remain elevated; logistics pulse is improving; services inflation has a rent component that we monitor via CAPMAS sub‑index request.
| Sector | Now (value · unit · as‑of) | Inference — 6m band | Drivers & sensitivities | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | Deliveries 7,300 · units · Q2‑2025 | Inference: nominal prices +1–3% | CPI trend; handovers; mortgage cadence (FRA) | High |
| Office | Vacancy 7.4% · Q2‑2025; Grade‑A rent ≈ EGP ~1,330 · /sqm/mo · Q2‑2025 | Inference: prime +3–6%; fringe flat to −2% | T‑bill 25%+; sublease risk; WAULT | High |
| Retail | Prime rent growth +7.6% · YoY · Q2‑2025 | Inference: prime net effective 0–2% | Tenant mix; import cost pass‑through | High |
| Industrial & Logistics | Occ. ~95% · H1‑2025 | Inference: rents +5–10% | SCA/TEUs; limited ready stock; power MVA | High |
| Hospitality | Occ. proxy ~71.1% · Q2‑2025 | Inference: occ 68–72%; ADR +5–8% | Air pax; event calendar; FX | Medium |
| Education | Fee caps +6–25% · 2025 policy | Inference: tuition +6–10% | MOETE circulars; seat growth mid‑fee | High |
| Alt‑Assets (DC) | Raya DC capex USD 15m · Dec‑2024 | Inference: demand steady; pricing resilient | Power/fiber allocation; latency corridors | Medium |
| Sector | Now (value · unit · as‑of) | Inference — 6m band | Drivers & sensitivities | Conf. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial & Logistics | ALCN 80,917 · TEUs · Aug‑2025 | Inference: prime sheds +3–5%; occ 92–96% | TEUs trend; reefer share; power tariffs | High |
| Retail | Prime mall rent (operator‑gated) | Inference: net effective 0–2% | Operator rent‑roll; footfall | Medium |
| Office | Grade‑A stock thin | Inference: −2% to +1% (flat/soft) | Fit‑out costs; demand depth | Medium |
| Hospitality | City STR gated | Inference: occ 62–68%; ADR +4–7% | HBE pax; seasonality | Medium |
| Education | Fee caps +6–25% · 2025 policy | Inference: tuition +6–10% | School approvals cadence | High |
| Residential | Population anchor ~5.6m · Jan‑2024 | Inference: effective rents +2–4% | CPI rents proxy; limited infill pipeline | Medium |
Test #1 — I&L (Alexandria–Damietta corridor): “All sub‑markets are equally tight.”
Test: Compare ALCN and DPA monthly TEUs (Aug–Oct‑2025); triangulate with SCA receipts. Evidence: ALCN 80,917 · TEUs · Aug‑2025 (operator), SCA +17.5 · % YoY · Oct‑2025. Finding: False near‑term — Alexandria tightens faster; Damietta capacity ramps cap rent re‑rating. Implication: Overweight Alexandria‑proximate Grade‑A sheds; selective Damietta as capacity normalizes.
Test #2 — Cairo Office: “Grade‑A rents will keep rising uninterrupted.”
Test: Vacancy/supply (JLL) vs. cost of capital (T‑bill, MPC). Evidence: Vacancy 7.4% · Q2‑2025 (prime ~4.5%); 364‑day T‑bill 25.440 · % · 17‑Nov‑2025. Finding: Partially false — prime ↑, fringe flat/− amid funding drag. Implication: Barbell allocation: prime New/West Cairo only; avoid legacy B‑grade unless capex deployed.
| Rank | City | Sector | Score | Why now | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cairo | I&L | 3.57 | Inland tight; logistics pulse up | High |
| 2 | Alexandria | I&L | 3.35 | Near‑port sheds; reefer angle | Medium |
| 3 | Cairo | Hospitality | 3.31 | Pax & events tailwind | Medium |
| 4 | Cairo | Retail | 3.30 | Prime NI resilient | High |
| 5 | Cairo | Office (prime) | 3.27 | Flight‑to‑quality | High |
We enforce Two‑Source on decisive metrics (primary authority + Tier‑1 corroboration), CRAAP ≥80, and a freshness guard of 12 months. Any proxy (e.g., STR city series gated, CAPMAS rent sub‑index, EHCAAN pax dashboard, DPA TEU CSV) is labeled “Medium” with the exact upgrade path. Inferences are marked and include drivers & ± sensitivities. Local currency (EGP) is primary.
Downloads: Macro log, city logs, sector logs, Gap‑Scorecard, Evidence log & JSONL, and ZIP bundle are linked below.
It’s a six‑month, decision‑grade view that ranks city×sector opportunities across Cairo and Alexandria. The Egypt Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 blends demand, 6–18‑month supply, pricing power, affordability, liquidity, and policy, then applies macro/logistics tailwinds and a confidence adjustment. Every decisive figure follows the Two‑Source Rule and a CRAAP ≥80 quality bar, with proxies flagged and upgrade paths stated.
Start with the narrative: the Egypt Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 is your map; you are the decision‑maker. Read the short “what moved” section (rates/CPI/logistics), then scan the top-ranked city×sector pairs (e.g., Cairo I&L, Alexandria I&L, Cairo Hospitality). Only then open the chart—use it to confirm where yield, absorption, and pricing power overlap in your mandate.
The scorecard tilts to Industrial & Logistics (Cairo #1 for structural tightness; Alexandria #2 for near‑port, reefer‑adjacent demand), followed by Hospitality (Cairo) and Retail (Cairo). Office is barbelled (prime ↑, fringe flat), given funding costs. If you’re developing, think spec‑lite, power‑ready sheds in Cairo and gate‑efficient cold‑chain near Dekheila/Amreya/Borg El‑Arab in Alexandria.
Policy corridor and 364‑day T‑bill yields anchor your discount rate. In the Egypt Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2, we treat risk‑free as the starting line; strategies that add execution alpha—faster lease‑up, CPI‑linked escalators, lower capex per sqm, guaranteed power (MVA)—earn spread first. For office, prime assets with ESG retrofits and longer WAULTs justify the barbell; for I&L, turn‑time and power availability drive stabilised yield.
Four swing factors: (i) policy‑rate shock, (ii) FX basis widening, (iii) logistics slowdown (Suez/TEUs), and (iv) cadence‑lag in gated datasets. We red‑team each risk and set monthly signposts so you can adjust allocations quickly if two swings align.
Keep designs spec‑lite and power‑ready; phase utilities; use CPI‑linked leases; and protect cash by sequencing fit‑out contributions. In Cairo I&L, 10–15k‑sqm cross‑dock boxes with ≥5 MVA and 3–5‑year WAULTs shorten lease‑up. In Alexandria, prioritise reefer plug density and yard turn‑time near the port gates. For the office, commit capex to prime, not fringe.
Lean into prime renewals (retail and office) with CPI escalators and turnover rent where covenants allow. In logistics, renew early and trade rent for yard/throughput SLAs that reduce tenant opex—this supports occupancy and net effective rent. In hospitality, focus on conference‑capable assets and energy retrofits to stabilise RevPAR while rates stay elevated.
If tenancy registries or city STR series are gated, we use labelled proxies (e.g., CPI‑rents, permits cadence, operator KPIs) with confidence = Medium and publish the exact upgrade path (e.g., DPA monthly TEU CSV; CAPMAS COICOP 04.1 sub‑index; STR/EHA monthly). These rules are enforced gate‑by‑gate before publication.
We test consensus claims using market‑based data. Examples: “All I&L sub‑markets are equally tight” is tested against TEUs and yard capacity; “Prime office rents will rise uninterrupted” is tested against vacancy, net absorption, and the cost of capital; “Off‑plan will restore affordability” is tested against NUCA allocation→delivery survival and mortgage cadence. Each test states claim → test → evidence → finding → implication.
Prices have nominal support from service and rent inflation, but affordability is the gate. The playbook is smaller ticket sizes, staged handovers, and targeted mortgages; monitor CPI rents, FRA mortgage volumes, and completion cadence. This turns the Egypt Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 into a weekly sales‑room tool rather than just a quarterly report.
Pull the macro log, city logs, sector logs, Gap‑Scorecard CSV, and evidence cards JSONL into your model. Everything is in gate‑named folders with a MANIFEST and CHECKSUMS, ready for diligence or an IC memo. The same schema powers our web and deck outputs, so updates propagate cleanly.
We only publish once gated steps pass: A→G. Each decisive number shows value · unit · as‑of with live links; every forecast is tagged Inference with drivers and ±sensitivities; and a Confidence HUD tallies High/Medium/Low counts. The QA checklist runs before export, so your team can rely on it for term sheets.
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