If you’ve been underwriting Algeria from the sidelines, the story changed while most of the region watched oil. Headline inflation has cooled to 2.2% (YoY, Sep-2025) and the policy rate is 2.75% (Oct-2025).
Meanwhile, the Port of Algiers handled 2.414 million tonnes in Q2-2025, and operator reports show roughly 1,000,000 containers YTD by early October. That combination—lower carrying costs, softer input inflation, and improving logistics throughput—sets a particular stage: it is harder for cap rates to widen, and easier for prime assets to defend cash yields.
You don’t need a long white paper to act. You need a map. Our city×sector scorecard does precisely that, translating monthly authority data (ONS inflation, Banque d’Algérie rates, EPAL/EPO port cadence, ARPCE digital depth, Sonelgaz capacity) into ranked opportunity sets you can underwrite in 30 minutes. Think of yourself as the decision-maker; the data is your trail guide.
Read first, chart later. As the scorecard below shows, the top opportunities cluster around industrial & logistics (I&L) and digital-adjacent “Alt-Assets.” But the “why” matters more than the ranking. Here’s the narrative behind the numbers—so you know what to do when you finally look at the chart.
We score each city×sector on six drivers you actually model: Demand, Supply (6–18m outlook), Pricing Power, Affordability, Liquidity, and Policy. The weights are practical, not academic: 0.25·Demand, 0.20·Supply, 0.20·Pricing, 0.15·Affordability, 0.10·Liquidity, 0.10·Policy.
Two things make this useful now:
You may be asking: why Oran first if Algiers is the larger gateway? Two reasons. First, the Port of Oran’s 2024 baseline (~295k TEU) provided operators with a clean starting point; in 2025, Oran received new handling equipment and modernization. Second, pipeline pressure is modest relative to the catchment’s consumption growth, so incremental berth productivity drops straight into absorption. Our six-month call: prime warehouse rents +1.0% → +2.5% YoY, with vacancy −50 bps → 0 bps in port-proximate submarkets. Sensitivity: ±75 bps to the policy corridor and commissioning slippage.
Algiers is the bellwether. 2.414 mn tonnes in Q2-2025 alongside shorter berth dwell is the part of the story many miss; it says “flow improved,” not “clogged.” With containers around ~1,000,000 units YTD by early Q4, logistics demand should track inventory restocking. Our six-month call: prime warehouses +1.0% → +2.0% YoY, vacancy −50 bps → 0 bps in the east-Algiers arc (Rouiba–Réghaïa). Risk: if monthly TEU falters >15% versus Q2–Q4 run-rate, trim rent growth by 25 bps.
Two national anchors unlock this: 56.54 mn internet subscribers (Q2-2025) and 27,333 MW installed capacity heading into summer 2025. If you’re developing edge-DC shells or cold-chain boxes, you care about power allocation and fiber SLAs more than about headline GDP. Our six-month call: DC colocation (DZD-hedged) Flat → +2%, cold-chain +1% → +2%. Sensitivity: site-level power guarantees and carrier redundancy.
Same digital and power backbone, with the added kicker that logistics nodes are tightening. Expect flat to +2% on DC colocation equivalents and +1–2% on cold-chain as port flow normalizes.
Low inflation (2.2% YoY) improves real affordability while a visible public pipeline—AADL Réghaïa, ~3,000 dwellings “before delivery” (Nov-2025)—caps near-term price upside. Our six-month call: stabilized rents +0.5% → +1.5% YoY; sale prices −1.0% → +1.0% YoY. Sensitivity: ±100 bps to input costs (IPPI printed +0.9% q/q in Q2-2025) and to the pace of handovers.
With the policy rate at 2.75% and the corridor 0.00–4.75%, the short end is no longer a headwind. If you’re underwriting prime warehouses at, say, a 9–10% unlevered yield, stability in rates plus improving operating KPIs gives room for 25–50 bps cap-rate compression where covenant quality is strong. For the office, we do not assume compression; indexation is likely to match CPI at most.
You may be hearing “costs are running away.” The national producer-price proxy for materials (IPPI ex-hydrocarbons) printed +0.9% q/q (Q2-2025). That is stability, not a squeeze. For IRR math, we keep capex contingencies in the 2–3% range rather than 5–10%. If Q3–Q4 IPPI prints ≥+1.5% twice, we revisit.
In Algiers, operator-cited tonnage and shorter berth stays contradict the “congestion” narrative. In Oran, 2025, modernization matters because it increases the likelihood that your next tenant will open on schedule. In both corridors, flow drives absorption, not headlines. Practical takeaway: if your lease-up model assumes 6 months to 90% for a 10k–15k sqm box, tighten that assumption by 1–2 months in submarkets with demonstrated dwell-time improvements.
With CPI cooling and containers flowing, we keep prime base rents 0.0% → +1.0% YoY across both cities. The play is occupancy and sales density, not rent steps. Negotiate turnover top-ups to protect downside if FX (official ~130.6 DZD/USD) moves or import mix shifts.
Oran’s new terminal can handle 3.5 million pax/year (expandable to 6 million), but traffic data by airport is the missing piece. National operator proxies show 3.9 mn pax in H1-2025, which helps sentiment. We call RevPAR +1% → +3% YoY into Q2-2026 if airline adds persist. If you’re financing a hotel, push for route-level letters or airline MOU evidence in the diligence pack.
When you look at the chart, don’t stop at the rank. For each of the top five:
ou can buy time-to-cash in Algerian logistics today. With rates benign, inflation low, and port cadence improving, the carry case for stabilized warehouses is stronger than it has been in years.
If you require 200–300 bps over funding and 1–2% rent growth, both Algiers and Oran can deliver, provided you anchor the story in operator data rather than headlines.
In residential, the path is narrower: inflation helps, but public handovers cap upside. Play speed, specification, and micro-location. In Alt-Assets, the winners will be the teams that secure power and fiber first, not those who pitch the sleekest brochure.
As the scorecard below shows, the ranking favors I&L and digital-adjacent boxes. The “why” is simple: flow and infrastructure beat narrative.
If you want the deal-by-deal breakout or need our complete source-audited model (with Evidence Cards and operator contact lists), contact us for a deeper breakdown. We’ll walk your IC through the sensitivities, the CSVs behind them, and what to watch each month.
Your move: pick the submarket, secure the operating data, and lean into assets where time to stable cash is shortest.
Algeria’s macro mix is supportive. Headline CPI printed 2.2% · %YoY · Sep-2025 (ONS, APS). The Banque d’Algérie cut the policy rate to 2.75% · % · Oct-2025 (BA, BA communiqué).
On the ground, Algiers port throughput improved: 2.414 mn t · tonnes · Q2-2025 and shorter quay stay (Radio Algérie, El Moudjahid). Containers ran near ~1,000,000 · units · YTD 05-Oct-2025 (APS).
Our Gap-Scorecard highlights Industrial & Logistics (I&L) as the near-term winner in Oran and Algiers. Use the city sector tables below to underwrite six-month scenarios. Bilingual labels are used at first mention: ONS — Office National des Statistiques — الديوان الوطني للإحصائيات; Banque d’Algérie — البنك المركزي الجزائري.
The composite ranks each city×sector on six equalized dimensions: Demand, Supply (6–18m), Pricing Power, Affordability, Liquidity, and Policy. Scores run 1–5 and are weighted 0.25·Demand, 0.20·Supply, 0.20·Pricing, 0.15·Affordability, 0.10·Liquidity, 0.10·Policy.
| Top-5 — City | Sector | Score (/5) | Why now |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oran | Industrial & Logistics | 3.35 | Operator upgrades and a 295,000 · TEU · 2024 baseline. Ecofin, AfricaSCM. |
| Algiers | Industrial & Logistics | 3.30 | 2.414 mn t · Q2-2025 and improved dwell. Radio Algérie, El Moudjahid, APS. |
| Algiers | Alt-Assets | 3.10 | Digital depth 56.54 mn · subs · Q2-2025 and grid headroom 27,333 · MW · 2025. ARPCE, Sonelgaz. |
| Oran | Alt-Assets | 3.10 | Same national anchors for DC and cold-chain. ARPCE, Sonelgaz. |
| Algiers | Residential | 3.08 | Low CPI and AADL pipeline of 3,000 · dwellings · Nov-2025 at Réghaïa. APS. |
| Metric | Latest | As-of | Primary | Corroboration | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI headline (YoY) | 2.2 % | 2025-09-30 | ONS | APS | High |
| CPI Algiers (m/m) | −0.7 % | 2025-09-30 | ONS | ONS news | High |
| Policy rate | 2.75 % | 2025-10-31 | Banque d’Algérie | BA communiqué | High |
| Deposit facility (O/N) | 0.00 % | 2025-10-31 | Banque d’Algérie | Africanews DZ | High |
| Lending facility (O/N) | 4.75 % | 2025-10-31 | Banque d’Algérie | BA communiqué | High |
| Credit impulse (H1) | +5.36 % | 2025-06-30 | BA Bulletin #69 | Le Jeune Indépendant | Medium |
| IPPI (ex-hydrocarbons, q/q) | +0.9 % | 2025-06-30 | ONS IPPI Q2-2025 | El Moudjahid | High |
| USD/DZD (official) | 130.628 | 2025-11-24 | BA FX | TradingEconomics | High |
| Port of Algiers (cargo) | 2.414 mn t | 2025-06-30 | Radio Algérie | El Moudjahid | High |
| Algiers containers (YTD) | ~1,000,000 units | 2025-10-05 | APS | L’Enjeux Éco | Medium |
| Air passengers (operator proxy) | 3.9 mn pax | 2025-06-30 | El Moudjahid | Visa-Algérie | Medium |
| Internet subscribers (total) | 56.54 mn | 2025-06-30 | ARPCE | ARPCE EN brief | High |
Read-through: rates eased, inflation cooled, port cadence improved, and digital depth is high. Focus on prime logistics and DC-adjacent assets.
| Sector | Now | Inference (6m band) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | CPI 2.2% YoY; AADL 3,000 near delivery | Inference: Rents +0.5%→+1.5% YoY; Sales −1.0%→+1.0% YoY | CPI path; AADL handovers; ±75–100 bps to corridor/IPPI | Medium |
| Office | Stable demand from public/energy tenants | Inference: Prime net face 0.0%→+1.5% YoY; Vacancy ±25 bps | Rates, renewals; ±50 bps to interbank | Medium |
| Retail | Containers ~1,000,000 YTD; CPI low | Inference: Base rents 0.0%→+1.0% YoY; Occupancy flat→+50 bps | Import mix; FX pass-through; monthly TEU | Medium |
| Industrial & Logistics | 2.414 mn t Q2; dwell time down | Inference: Prime warehouse +1.0%→+2.0% YoY; Vacancy −50 bps→0 bps | TEU/tonnage run-rate; ±75 bps to rates | Medium |
| Hospitality | National pax 3.9 mn H1 (operator proxy) | Inference: RevPAR +1.0%→+3.0% YoY | Route adds/cuts; monthly pax series | Medium |
| Education | Permits/completions gated | Inference: Rents 0.0%→+1.0% YoY | DAUE permits; parking/egress constraints | Medium |
| Alt-Assets | 56.54 mn subs; 27,333 MW installed | Inference: DC colocation Flat→+2%; Cold-chain +1%→+2% | Power allocation; fiber SLAs; reefer flows | High |
| Sector | Now | Inference (6m band) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | 2,072 units distributed; AADL-3 3,150 launched | Inference: Rents −0.5%→+0.5% YoY; Sales −1.0%→+1.0% YoY | New supply overlap; ±75–100 bps to rates/IPPI | Medium |
| Office | Limited new supply; public tenants anchor | Inference: Prime 0.0%→+1.0% YoY; Vacancy ±25 bps | BA corridor; renewals | Medium |
| Retail | Port baseline 295k TEU (2024) | Inference: Base rents 0.0%→+1.0% YoY; Occupancy flat→+50 bps | TEU cadence; FX pass-through | Medium |
| Industrial & Logistics | Operator upgrades; Amarres #16 | Inference: Prime warehouse +1.0%→+2.5% YoY; Vacancy −50 bps→0 bps | Commissioning pace; ±75 bps to rates | Medium |
| Hospitality | New terminal capacity 3.5→6.0 mn pax/yr | Inference: RevPAR +1.0%→+3.0% YoY | Routes and events; pax CSV | Medium |
| Education | Permits/completions gated | Inference: Rents 0.0%→+1.0% YoY | DAUE permits; conversion capex | Medium |
| Alt-Assets | Digital and power anchors as above | Inference: DC Flat→+2%; Cold-chain +1%→+2% | Power allocation; reefer throughput | High |
Test: ONS IPPI q/q (ex-hydrocarbons). Evidence: +0.9% · %q/q · Q2-2025 (ONS, Radio Algérie). Finding: No surge. Implication: Keep base capex flat→+1%; maintain our rent bands with ±75–100 bps rate sensitivity.
Test: Throughput and dwell. Evidence: 2.414 mn t · Q2-2025, shorter quay stay (Radio Algérie, El Moudjahid), and ~1,000,000 · containers · YTD (APS). Finding: Flow improved. Implication: Maintain I&L rent band; upside +25 bps if TEU CSV confirms run-rate.
| Rank | City | Sector | Score | Why now | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oran | I&L | 3.35 | Upgraded equipment; 295k TEU base | Medium |
| 2 | Algiers | I&L | 3.30 | Tonnage up; dwell down | Medium |
| 3 | Algiers | Alt-Assets | 3.10 | Broadband + power | High |
| 4 | Oran | Alt-Assets | 3.10 | Same national anchors | High |
| 5 | Algiers | Residential | 3.08 | Low CPI; AADL handovers | Medium |
Two-Source Rule: Primary authority + Tier-1 corroboration for decisive metrics. Freshness Guard: 12 months; older items flagged with upgrade paths (e.g., EGSA airport CSV, DAUE permits, EPAL/EPO monthly TEU). Inference: Bands are labeled and include ±sensitivities to rates, FX, and pipeline cadence. Reuse: Cite ONS, Banque d’Algérie, ARPCE, Sonelgaz, EPAL/EPO with links. Data may be gated or revised.
Answer: The Algeria Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 points to a supportive six-month window: policy rate 2.75%, headline CPI 2.2% YoY, construction-cost proxy (IPPI) +0.9% q/q, and improving port cadence (Algiers 2.414 mn t in Q2; ~1,000,000 containers YTD). Net: mild cap-rate compression is feasible on prime income, with Industrial & Logistics (I&L) leading in Algiers and Oran.
Answer:
Answer: With the policy rate at 2.75% and the corridor 0.00–4.75%, carry costs stabilize. CPI at 2.2% caps indexation but improves real affordability. If your hurdle is 200–300 bps over funding, prime I&L yields can defend it, and 25–50 bps cap-rate compression is plausible where covenant quality is strong. That’s the rates-to-cap-rate bridge behind the Algeria Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2.
Answer: The Algeria Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 highlights three signposts:
Answer: In Algiers, the AADL Réghaïa pipeline (~3,000 dwellings) tempers price upside. We guide rents +0.5–1.5% and prices 1.0–+1.0% over six months. Focus on speed, specification, and micro-location rather than headline price per sqm. In Oran, the recent 2,072 distributions and AADL-3 start shifting attention to neighborhoods outside bulk handover catchments.
Answer: Two structural anchors: ARPCE connectivity depth (56.54 mn subs) and Sonelgaz capacity (27,333 MW). If you can secure named power allocation and dual-carrier fiber, the Algeria Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 supports DC colocation Flat → +2% and cold-chain revenue bands of +1–2%. The constraint is infrastructure allocation, not end-demand.
Answer:
Answer: Start with city×sector rank, then plug the six-month rent bands (I&L +1–2.5%, retail base 0–1%, hospitality RevPAR +1–3%) into your cash-flow. Run exit ±50 bps around today’s cap rates. If your DSCR buffer is < 1.25× at reversion, require operator data (TEU/dwell, CPI sub-baskets) or price for risk. That’s the investor-grade workflow implied by the Algeria Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2.
Answer: Pick Oran when your thesis depends on commissioning gains and faster lease-up near the port. Pick Algiers when you want depth, proven flow (Q2 tonnage up), and east-corridor tenant pools. In both, the Algeria Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 says logistics beats office on risk-adjusted yield, while residential is a speed-to-handover game.
Answer: Gate-based CSVs and stubs: Macro Source Log (rates, CPI, FX, credit, ports), City Source Log (population, pax, pipelines), Sector Logs (rent/price bands, notes), Country Gap-Scorecard, and an Evidence Pack with JSONL “cards”. It’s built for quick model plumbing—so you can replicate the Algeria Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 in your own underwriting in minutes.
Answer:
Answer: Every decisive figure is backed by an authoritative source (ONS, Banque d’Algérie, EPAL/EPO, ARPCE, Sonelgaz) plus a Tier-1 corroboration, with freshness ≤ 12 months. Where data are gated, the Algeria Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 labels confidence Medium and specifies the exact extract (e.g., EPAL/EPO monthly TEU, EGSA pax CSV, DAUE permits).
Need a deeper breakdown or data-room walkthrough anchored to a live deal? Contact us, and we’ll map your underwriting to the Algeria Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 dataset, line by line.
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