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Morocco’s macro has shifted into a sweet spot: headline CPI near zero (Oct-2025), policy and interbank at 2.25%, and freight and tourism still expanding. That cocktail changes how you price risk, time handovers, and choose sub-markets.
You may be asking: Where does value compound fastest over the next two quarters? Our country scorecard ranks city×sector pairs on what matters to underwriting: demand momentum, supply over the next 6–18 months, pricing power, affordability, liquidity, and policy. The aim is to guide your decision before you scroll to the scorecard.
We combine three layers:
Those inputs form a composite score out of 100. Where key inputs are gated (e.g., municipal permit CSVs, airport-by-airport passenger files, broker vacancy sheets), we penalize confidence and label it Medium. That prevents optimistic bias in your IRR model when evidence is partial.
As the scorecard below shows, the top five are:
Let’s unpack why they win.
Why it ranks: The Atlantic Free Zone (Kénitra) anchors the corridor. Stellantis’ capacity plan (~535k vehicles/year), supplier clustering, and the A1 corridor logistics keep absorption steady. National ports data show throughput growth in 2025, and the dirham’s ±5% band keeps FX pass-through contained.
What it means for you: If you’re developing 5–10k m² boxes near AFZ, headline rents hold, and incentives matter more than face value. We expect asking rents to be 0–2% higher over six months, with effective rents flat to +1% depending on fit-out participation and the length of the term.
Sensitivity to watch: A one-quarter slip in auto capex can shave 2–3% from short-term demand, while a 5% swing in ANP throughput nudges rents by ~1%. Price your exit yield with a 25–50 bps compression bias, contingent on interbank staying around policy.
Why it ranks: Casablanca’s H1-2025 containers reached 723,973 TEU (+6.7% YoY). Tanger Med closed 2024 at 10.241m TEU, raising the corridor’s structural floor. Modern stock in Médiouna/Mohammédia remains scarce, particularly for dock-high units with a clear height ≥10 m.
What it means for you: For 6–12k m² sheds, prime asks cluster around MAD 37–56/sqm/mo (broker-anchored, currency-guarded). Treat cold-chain and health/food nodes as priority. Expect asks 0–2% higher and cap-rate drift tighter by ~25–50 bps if trade momentum holds.
Sensitivity to watch: TEU growth is the cleanest high-frequency signpost. A 10% TEU shock can shift effective rents ±1–2% and your stabilized yield ±10–20 bps.
Why it ranks: The IPAI city panel printed prices +1.2% QoQ and transactions +23.7% QoQ in Q3-2025. The T3/T4 tram launch and busway axes unlocked fresh demand pockets and shortened buyer time-to-decision. With CPI housing/water/electricity at +2.3% YoY, landlords have opex pass-through headroom without breaking affordability.
What it means for you: If you’re delivering mid-rise, transit-oriented units along T3/T4/Busway, plan for flat to +1.0% QoQ pricing by 2026-Q1 and rent growth capped around +1.5–3.0% YoY unless CPI re-accelerates. Presales cadence improves near stations; product-market fit beats amenity bloat.
Sensitivity to watch: ±50 bps on interbank shifts, price drift by ±30 bps. Delays in Rokhas approvals can move handover windows by ±2–3 months, which matters for carry and pre-funding.
Why it ranks: The Rabat panel outpaced Casablanca in Q3-2025: prices +3.2% QoQ, transactions +27.4% QoQ. Demand concentrates around Agdal and Hay Riad, with tram connectivity compressing search radii for students, professionals, and public-sector tenants.
What it means for you: If you’re targeting PBSH-adjacent or mid-market condos, you can underwrite +0.5–1.5% QoQ price momentum into 2026-Q1. Keep rent indexation conservative—use CPI as a ceiling—and prioritize delivery certainty over marginal spec upgrades.
Sensitivity to watch: Public works and utilities hook-ups are the pacing item. A two-month slip isn’t unusual—pad your construction interest and marketing ramps accordingly.
Why it ranks: Air passengers are +11.7% YoY (Jan–Aug 2025), while arrivals clocked ~14.94m (Jan–Sep 2025). City-level occupancy is older (Casablanca 46% to Oct-2024), so we mark Medium confidence, but mobility data and bookings imply ongoing recovery.
What it means for you: Select-service and limited-service near CMN and Casa-Port look best on a risk-adjusted basis. Underwrite Occ +2–4 ppt and RevPAR +5–8% YoY over six months. F&B and meetings-led concepts monetize the traffic recovery without requiring luxury ADRs.
Sensitivity to watch: ONDA monthly CSV by airport is the upgrade path. A 10% swing in pax can move occupancy ±3 ppt, which flows directly into NOI growth and refi math.
With headline CPI ~0–0.5% YoY and policy at 2.25%, real rates are modestly positive. Interbank transmission remains clean. You should read this as “cap-rates have room to firm where demand is demonstrably tightening.” We model 25–50 bps compression only where freight or pax confirms absorption.
Port throughput, ANP YTD through August, is up. Tanger Med’s 2024 step-up creates a durable baseline. That keeps I&L demand from air-pockets and supports rent stability even with thin modern stock. Tourism arrivals and air passengers continue to expand, lifting hospitality ADR/Occ and street-retail footfall.
Casablanca’s T3/T4 and busway corridors, and Rabat-Salé’s >160k daily tram riders, shrink the city for commuters. That’s visible in IPAI prints: transactions jumped where transit nodes improved. If you own land near stations, the depth of demand often beats headline city averages.
We don’t guess where we lack official cadence. Municipal permits/completions (Rokhas), ONDA by-airport CSV, and broker vacancy sheets are still gated. We label those KPIs Medium and apply penalties in the score. Your underwriting can upgrade quickly if your team can secure these extracts.
Developers: Favor mid-box product with specs that shorten dwell-to-fit-out. Consider indexation floors and longer minimum terms to secure debt. The corridor’s through-cycle demand supports exit yields tightening 25–50 bps, but only if TEU holds.
Investors: Focus on shovel-ready sites near AFZ and Médiouna/Mohammédia. Your IRR is more sensitive to time-to-lease than to a 50 bps move in the base rate.
Developers: If you’re delivering in T3/T4 corridors (Casa) or Agdal/Hay Riad (Rabat), push unit mix toward 1–2BR and compress back-of-house. We expect QoQ price bands of +0.0–1.5%. Use CPI rents as the ceiling; avoid underwriting structural rent re-rating without city microdata.
Investors: Lease-up risk is manageable near transit nodes. Model 12–14-month stabilization with flat to +3% YoY rent growth, and sensitivity of ±30 bps on exit cap if interbank wobbles.
Developers/owners: The headline band (MAD 186–232/sqm/mo) for prime Grade-A (Casa) looks stable, but the net depends on incentives. Without the current vacancy series, we maintain Medium confidence if your business plan relies on re-rating rather than lease engineering. Pause.
Owners: Street-front still outperforms enclosed formats in Casablanca. Our band MAD 300–600/sqm/mo is indicative; push for turnover rent where F&B anchors.
Developers: In Rabat, Arribat Center and Le Carrousel organize demand. The near-term upside is leasing mix quality, not headline rent jumps.
Operators/asset managers: Go for select-service near mobility nodes. Price Occ: +2–5 ppt; RevPAR: +5–9% YoY. Keep a dashboard on events calendars and pax; they are leading indicators for weekly booking curves.
If you had to choose one play for the next two quarters, choose Rabat × I&L. It balances macro tailwinds with operational clarity. You can mitigate your riskiest assumption, vacancy, through pre-lets to auto suppliers and dock-door specs. The Casablanca × I&L trade is nearly as attractive, with a deeper tenant pool and better liquidity at sale.
On the residential side, transit-oriented mid-rise in Casablanca is classic compounding. You’re not betting on a rent re-rating; you’re harvesting liquidity where search frictions fell.
Hospitality remains a tactical bet near CMN and Casa-Port. Keep cost discipline, lean into F&B and Meetings, and index where possible. If ONDA monthly CSVs confirm continued pax growth, the select-service cluster becomes programmatic.
You now know what is behind each score, what we assumed, and where the risks live. Open the scorecard to check your city × sector. If anything sits on Medium confidence and matters to your thesis, we can source the official extract and upgrade the input so your model earns its keep.
Contact us for a deeper breakdown, a sensitivity workbook, or city-specific permit and pipeline audits. Your capital is the hero—our data is the map.
Morocco enters late-2025 with disinflation, a steady policy rate, and a resilient trade and tourism engine. The dirham’s managed band remains unchanged, while the Bank Al-Maghrib (بنك المغرب · BAM) continues to transmit policy cleanly into the interbank market. Ports throughput and air passengers are expanding, lifting industrial & logistics and hospitality fundamentals.
This outlook distills thousands of datapoints into a Gap Scorecard you can underwrite. Every decisive metric shows a value, unit, and as-of date, with a primary authority and a Tier-1 corroboration. Freshness guard: 12 months.
Scores blend city×sector fundamentals: Demand, Supply (6–18m), Pricing Power (rents/sales), Affordability, Liquidity, and Policy. We weight sector Gate-D scores with macro momentum and a contrarian signal from market-based data. Confidence penalties apply where inputs are gated or proxy-based.
| Rank | City | Sector | Score | Why now | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabat | Industrial & Logistics | 68.0/100 | AFZ Kénitra engine, Stellantis expansion, positive ANP prints | Medium |
| 2 | Casablanca | Industrial & Logistics | 67.4/100 | Container growth (ANP, TMPA baseline), modern-stock scarcity | Medium |
| 3 | Casablanca | Residential | 66.7/100 | Tram T3/T4 corridors, steady prices and transactions | High |
| 4 | Rabat | Residential | 66.1/100 | Agdal/Hay Riad depth; IPAI upswing | High |
| 5 | Casablanca | Hospitality | 66.0/100 | Air traffic momentum; select-service opportunity | Medium |
Bilingual labels at first mention: HCP — Haut-Commissariat au Plan (المندوبية السامية للتخطيط) · BAM — Bank Al-Maghrib (بنك المغرب) · ANCFCC — Agence Nationale de la Conservation Foncière… (الوكالة الوطنية للمحافظة العقارية…) · ANP — Agence Nationale des Ports (الوكالة الوطنية للموانئ) · ONDA — Office National des Aéroports (المكتب الوطني للمطارات).
| Metric | Latest | As-of | Primary | Corroboration | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI headline (YoY) | 0.1% YoY | 2025-10-31 | HCP | Le Matin | High |
| CPI housing/water/electricity (YoY) | 2.3% YoY | 2025-10-31 | HCP divisional table | HCP PDF table | High |
| Policy rate | 2.25% | 2025-09-23 | BAM | Le Matin | High |
| Interbank overnight | ≈2.25% | 2025-11-12 | BAM indicators | Marogest | High |
| Credit to non-financial sector (YoY) | +3.0% YoY | 2025-09-30 | BAM | Boursenews | High |
| Residential Property Price Index (YoY) | +1.2% YoY | 2025-09-30 | BAM/ANCFCC | Hespress | High |
| Manufacturing PPI (IPPI) MoM | -0.1% MoM | 2025-09-30 | HCP | Le Brief | High |
| Tanger Med containers (annual) | 10.241m TEU | 2024-12-31 | TMPA | Ports Europe | High |
| Casablanca containers (H1) | 723,973 TEU | 2025-06-30 | ANP | ANP Stats | High |
| Air passengers (YTD) | 23.9m (+11.7% YoY) | 2025-08-31 | DEPF citing ONDA | Aeronautique.ma | Medium |
| Tourism arrivals (YTD) | 14,939,963 | 2025-09-30 | Observatoire | Wafa Bourse | High |
| FX regime | Managed float ±5% band | Current | BAM | BAM overview | High |
Read-through: Macro conditions support slight cap-rate compression in I&L and stable-to-firmer hospitality and residential absorption (Inference; ±50 bps interbank sensitivity).
| Sector | Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | IPAI +1.2% QoQ (Q3-2025); Transactions +23.7% QoQ. BAM/ANCFCC | Prices +0.0%→+1.0% QoQ; Rents +1.5%→+3.0% YoY (CPI ceiling). | Disinflation, steady interbank; watch Rokhas permits. ±50 bps TMP → ±30 bps prices. | High |
| Office | Prime Grade-A ~MAD 186–232/sqm/mo (May-2025). CBRE · Knight Frank | Headline 0%→+2%; Effective −1%→+1%. | CFC-led demand; incentives drive nets. ±50 bps TMP → ±1% rent. | Medium |
| Retail | High-street MAD 300–600/sqm/mo (Oct-2025). HAC · KF | Base rents −2%→+2%. | Footfall & F&B mix; pax volatility ±10% → ±1–2% rent. | Medium |
| Industrial & Logistics | Prime sheds ~MAD 37–56/sqm/mo (May-2025). CBRE · KF Africa Casablanca H1-2025: 723,973 TEU. ANP | Ask 0%→+2%; Effective −1%→+1%. | Trade volumes, modern stock scarcity. TEU ±10% → ±1–2% rent. | Medium→High on throughput |
| Hospitality | Occ 46% (YTD to Oct-2024). Le Matin citing OT · OT | Occ +2→+4 ppt; RevPAR +5%→+8% YoY. | Air pax +11.7% YoY (Jan–Aug-2025). DEPF · Aeronautique.ma | Medium (Currency↓ on city occ) |
| Sector | Now | Inference (6m) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | IPAI +3.2% QoQ; Transactions +27.4% QoQ (Q3-2025). BAM/ANCFCC | Prices +0.5%→+1.5% QoQ; Rents +1.5%→+3.0% YoY. | Agdal/Hay Riad depth; ±50 bps TMP → ±30 bps prices. | High |
| Office | No Tier-1 rent print (NA). Request CBRE/KF/JLL Rabat sheet. | Headline 0%→+1%; Effective −1%→+1%. | Admin/embassy tenancy stickiness; low speculative supply. | Medium |
| Retail | Anchors: Arribat Center ≈45,000 m² GLA; Le Carrousel opened Oct-2024. Chapman Taylor · Le Carrousel | High-street −1%→+2%; Prime mall 0%→+1%. | Pax CMN/RBA; operator leasing cadence. | Medium |
| Industrial & Logistics | AFZ Kénitra 454 ha; Stellantis target ~535k vehicles/yr; ANP YTD 69.4 Mt (Aug-2025). Gov portal · Reuters · ANP | Ask 0%→+2%; Effective −1%→+1%. | Auto-supply expansions; ANP throughput. Stellantis cadence ±1q → demand ±2–3%. | Medium→High on throughput |
| Hospitality | Occ 58% (Oct-2024 baseline). TelQuel · H24Info | Occ +3→+5 ppt; RevPAR +6%→+9% YoY. | ONDA pax; events calendar. Pax ±10% → ±3 ppt occ. | Medium (Currency↓ on city occ) |
Test: ANP YTD throughput, Casablanca containers (H1), exports, TMPA baseline.
Evidence: ANP 69.4 Mt YTD to Aug-2025 (+≈6%); Casa 723,973 TEU H1 (+6.7%); exports +3.6% YoY (9M-2025). Sources: ANP · ANP · Office des Changes.
Finding: False. Throughput and trade values are expanding.
Implication: Keep I&L prime asking +0–2%; cap-rates biased tighter by ~25–50 bps (Inference; TEU ±10% → rent ±1–2%).
Test: Arrivals/overnights and air passengers.
Evidence: 14,939,963 arrivals Jan–Sep-2025 (+≈14% YoY) and overnights +11%; air pax 23.9m (+11.7% YoY) Jan–Aug-2025. Sources: Observatoire · DEPF→ONDA.
Finding: False. Momentum persists into Q4/Q1.
Implication: Casa/Rabat Occ +2–5 ppt and RevPAR +5–9% (Inference; pax ±10% → occ ±3 ppt).
| Rank | City | Sector | Score | Why now | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rabat | Industrial & Logistics | 68.0 | AFZ/auto supply chain; throughput tailwinds | Medium |
| 2 | Casablanca | Industrial & Logistics | 67.4 | Container growth; modern sheds scarcity | Medium |
| 3 | Casablanca | Residential | 66.7 | Transit-oriented mid-rise along T3/T4/Busway | High |
| 4 | Rabat | Residential | 66.1 | Agdal/Hay Riad presales with CPI-linked cadence | High |
| 5 | Casablanca | Hospitality | 66.0 | Select-service near CMN/Casa-Port; F&B/meetings mix | Medium |
Two-Source Rule on decisive metrics: a primary authority plus Tier-1 corroboration. CRAAP ≥80 enforced; confidence marked Medium if a proxy or gated dataset is used. Freshness guard: 12 months. Inference is labeled with drivers and sensitivities. Gated upgrades requested: Rokhas permits/completions (CSV), ONDA monthly passengers by airport (CSV), ANP/TMPA monthly TEU, and broker rent/vacancy sheets (Casablanca & Rabat; office and I&L).
Download Center: Macro Source Log (CSV) · Evidence Pack (CSV) · ZIP — All file
Answer: Disinflation (+0.1% YoY in Oct-2025), a steady policy rate (2.25%), and rising mobility (air pax +11.7% YTD Aug-2025) set a supportive base. The scorecard favors (1) Rabat × Industrial & Logistics, (2) Casablanca × Industrial & Logistics, and (3) transit-oriented residential in Casablanca. Expect slight cap-rate compression (- -25 to -50 bps), with absorption validated by ports/air data. It underpins the Morocco real estate forecast H2 2025 across logistics, hospitality, and resi.
Answer:
Answer: With policy at 2.25% and interbank anchored, funding costs are stable. The dirham’s ±5% band limits FX pass-through to build costs and imported FF&E. Rule of thumb used in our Morocco real-estate outlook for the second half of 2025: a ±50 bps move in interbank rates shifts cap rates by ±25–40 bps and nudges debt coverage/IRR accordingly.
Answer:
Answer: Three independent pulses: (i) ANP YTD throughput up to Aug-2025, (ii) Casablanca containers +6.7% YoY in H1-2025, and (iii) Tanger Med at 10.241m TEU in 2024 (capacity baseline). If TEU growth holds, the Morocco Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 supports 0–2% rent uplift and a tighter exit yield in I&L. A 10% TEU shock typically moves effective rents ±1–2%.
Answer: Transit-adjacent Casablanca (T3/T4/Busway) and Rabat’s Agdal/Hay Riad. IPAI Q3-2025: Rabat +3.2% QoQ (prices), +27.4% QoQ (transactions). For the Morocco Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2, we guide prices +0.0–1.5% QoQ into 2026-Q1 and rent growth +1.5–3.0% YoY (CPI-capped). Key risk is permit cadence, pad timelines ±2–3 months.
Answer: Headline Grade-A asks cluster at MAD 186–232/sqm/month; net effective depends on TI/free-rent more than face value. Without the fresh vacancy series, our Morocco Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 keeps the headline flat to +2%, with the effective range 1% to +1%. Focus on CFC-quality specs, ESG basics, and service-level differentiation to defend NOI.
Answer:
Answer: Start with confidence badges. Where inputs are High, model directly. Where Medium (gated datasets like airport-by-airport pax, broker vacancy, municipal permits), treat bands as directional. Use our Inference sensitivities (e.g., ±50 bps interbank, ±10% TEU/pax) to build IRR and DSCR buffers. Then open the chart to confirm placement within your cost-of-capital lane.
Answer:
Answer:
Answer: Secure four extracts: ONDA monthly passengers by airport (CSV), ANP/TMPA monthly TEU by port/terminal, municipal permits & completions CSV (Casa/Rabat), and broker rent/vacancy city sheets (office, I&L, retail). With these, your Morocco real estate forecast H2 2025 moves from directional to bankable, and your investment committee will thank you.
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