If you invest or build in Tunisia, your next six months hinge on three forces moving in different directions. Inflation is cooling, but money-market rates are still high. Consumer-goods imports are expanding, yet total port tonnage looks flat. Construction costs have stopped spiking, but they’re not giving you relief either.
That tension creates a narrow corridor where value concentrates rather than spreads evenly. Our country scorecard shows the corridor runs through Grand Tunis, especially where tourism-led footfall and container-led consumption meet. Meanwhile, Sfax needs better air and port cadence to unlock upside. Your job is to place capital where these currents reinforce each other, and avoid where they clash.
We rank each city×sector on a composite out of 5. The pillars and weights reflect what drives underwriting in the next 6–18 months:
The method leans on official Tunisian sources (INS, BCT, OMMP, OACA, ONTT) and Tier-1 corroboration. We apply a slight contrarian tilt (±0.05) where the data say consensus is wrong—e.g., containerized imports are strong even when total tonnage headlines look weak. The goal is practical guidance you can put into practice today, not theory. As the scorecard below shows, the winners share three things: tourism or trade-driven demand, limited new supply, and controllable operating risk.
If you’re underwriting hotel refurb or asset-light repositioning, this is your lane. Non-resident arrivals are running ahead of last year, and Tunis-Carthage handled ~7.25 million passengers in 2024, a strong base for the shoulder season. With headline CPI ~4.9% and short rates stable (~7.5% TMM), we expect ADR growth of 2–4% and occupancy flat to +1.5 pp over six months.
How to play it: Favour mid-scale, business-leisure hybrids near airport corridors and central nodes. Underwrite CPI-linked clauses, keep FF&E CAPEX in TND where possible, and prioritize operating ROI over deep ground-up spend. In IRR terms, the edge comes from speed-to-revenue and margin lift, not cap-rate compression.
Watch-outs: Airline schedules and any winter capacity cuts. If monthly ONTT or OACA prints dip, trim ADR growth by 100–150 bps.
You may be asking, “If port tonnage is flat, why do logistics score this high?” Because demand follows containers, not bulk. Radès handles roughly four-fifths of containerized flows, and consumer-goods imports are up double digits year-on-year. Power supply is stable, and Grade-A urban stock is thin.
We keep prime last-mile rents at 0–2% growth, with a tilt toward the top end—lease 3–5-year terms with CPI indexation and low incentives. The yield story is income durability, not speculative rental spikes. Sensitivity: a real-world ±50 bps move in interbank rates nudges our rent band ±0.5 pp.
Where to build: The Radès–Charguia belt for 2–5k m² boxes; avoid deep-spec bulk until TEU monthly prints are live.
Destination retail tied to hotels, offices, and high-traffic nodes should outperform. Tourism strength and a resilient urban consumer basket support base rents at 0–2% in prime malls and 0–1% in top high-street pitches (Lac, Ennasr). Retailers will still fight over fit-out—construction materials remain elevated, so expect longer negotiation cycles and more creative key-money terms.
Operator cues: Watch occupancy and tenant sales per m². Where F&B and entertainment drive dwell time, absorption stays healthy even if discretionary slows elsewhere.
If your mandate includes infrastructure-adjacent tangible assets, data-adjacent and temperature-controlled boxes look interesting. The grid’s peak of ~4.8 GW and stable output give confidence in uptime; telecom dashboards show fibre moving in the right direction. Focus on edge-DC rooms in mixed-use assets and urban cold-stores serving FMCG.
Underwriting edge: secure redundant feeders, treat FX-exposed CAPEX conservatively, and target sticky 3–7 year covenants with annual CPI pass-through. Yield premium vs core logistics should compensate for specialized fit-out.
Rents track the CPI-rents sub-index (~5% YoY), but affordability caps upside. The money-market at ~7.5% and deposit rates near 6.5% keep leverage expensive and make savers picky. Our band rents at +0.5–1.5% and prices at 0–2% over six months.
Developer playbook: Phase releases; insist on >50% pre-sales before pouring; lock fixed-price lots where possible; structure step-up clauses aligned with CPI. If you’re chasing yield, micro-units in employment hubs can still pencil, but price the sales exit conservatively.
Sfax Alt-Assets (3.18) and Industrial & Logistics (3.15) carry potential, but air connectivity dipped, and container volumes need confirming data. Treat it as a selective buy: small DC/cold-stores near Thyna and the Route de Gabès corridor, with modest rent growth (0–1.5%) and tight cost control. Hospitality and office rank lower; wait for the monthly OACA and OMMP cadence to turn.
Tourism is the flywheel for both sectors. If you’re developing in this space, the near-term win is asset-light repositioning: refresh rooms, expand F&B, add flexible event space. For Retail, target hospitality, adjacent corridors, and experience-heavy tenants. Build CPI indexation into leases and consider percentage rent where sales data lets you share upside, model flat cap rates as your base case.
Don’t chase speculative size. The sweet spot is 2–5k m² units with high throughput, not deep bulk. Keep siteworks simple, avoid exotic materials, and engineer loading/clear heights to reduce steel and slab risk. Tie your valuation to lease-up velocity and credit quality, not marginal headline rent.
Household budgets are tight, and mortgage affordability is constrained. Your absorption hinges on ticket size and amenity-per-dinar, not just location. In projects with genuine walkability and transport proximity, gross yields still challenge deposits—but only if your build cost doesn’t drift. Use contingencies and procurement hedges.
If you own quality space in Lac/Centre Urbain Nord/Montplaisir, you can win share from B-stock without pushing rents aggressively. Anchor on plug-and-play floors and flexible partitions to reduce tenant CAPEX. If you’re developing, pre-lets are non-negotiable.
If you’re allocating capital:
If you’re developing:
If you’re lending or structuring:
If you’re operating portfolios:
As the scorecard below shows, the highest-scoring companies share the same DNA: tourism- or trade-driven demand, limited new supply, and controllable operating risk. Use the table to quickly sort deals, but make decisions based on the drivers above. If any of our signposts flip, TMM, Radès TEUs, or OACA/ONTT monthly, adjust your rent and ADR bands according to the noted sensitivities.
Base case into mid-2026: cap rates are flat, materials stay sticky, and income outperforms multiple expansion. In this setup, you win by prioritizing speed, indexation, and operational levers. That’s why Tunis hospitality, urban logistics, and hospitality-adjacent Retail lead our rankings. Sfax has upside, but it needs a confirmed monthly port and air cadence before you size risk.
If you want a deeper, asset-level breakdown—or need our six-month signpost watchlist plugged into your pipeline—contact us. We’ll share the source-audited dataset behind the scorecard and help you translate it into absorption, NOI, and IRR scenarios you can defend at IC.
Disinflation is taking hold while money-market rates remain high. Consumer-goods imports are rising, power supply is stable, and the container gateway at Radès continues to dominate flows. Together, these indicators support hospitality-adjacent retail and urban logistics in Grand Tunis, while secondary markets such as Sfax need air and port cadence to improve.
We scored every city×sector on a 1–5 composite (Demand, Supply 6–18m, Pricing Power, Affordability, Liquidity, Policy). The Gap-Scorecard surfaces where risk-adjusted upside is most likely over the next six months. Use it alongside the Macro Pulse and City drill-downs to focus underwriting and monitoring.
The composite blends six pillars: Demand (0.25), Supply 6–18m (0.20), Pricing Power (rents/sales) (0.15), Affordability (0.15), Liquidity (0.05), Policy/Rates (0.05). Scores come from official series and Tier-1 market corroboration. Contrarian tilts adjust ±0.05 where containerized imports and build-cost dynamics matter.
| Top-5 (by Adjusted Score) | City | Sector | Score | Why now |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunis | Hospitality | 3.40 / 5 | Tourism/air gateway baseline supports ADR & occupancy. |
| 2 | Tunis | Industrial & Logistics | 3.33 / 5 | Radès concentration + imports demand → last-mile resilience. |
| 3 | Tunis | Retail | 3.27 / 5 | Hospitality-led footfall; modest base-rent upside. |
| 4 | Tunis | Alt-Assets (DC/cold-chain) | 3.25 / 5 | Stable power; fibre/backhaul improving; consumption logistics. |
| 5 | Tunis | Residential | 3.18 / 5 | Indexed rents; affordability caps upside; supply measured. |
| Metric | Latest | As-of | Primary | Corroboration | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline CPI (YoY) | 4.9% YoY | 2025-10-31 | INS | TAP | High |
| CPI — Rents (YoY) | ~5.3% YoY | 2025-10-31 | INS | TradingEconomics | Medium |
| Policy Rate | 7.50% | 2025-07-30 | Reuters | TAP | Medium |
| TMM (interbank avg) | 7.49% | 2025-10-31 | BCT-OIF | La Presse | High |
| TRE (savings rate) | 6.5% | 2025-11-01 | BCT-OIF | UBCI | High |
| Build-costs — IPVI “Matériaux…” | 209.5 (2010=100) | 2025-09-30 | INS IPVI | INS XLS | High |
| Credit impulse (proxy) | ≈+1.1% YTD | 2025-08-31 | Leaders | WMC/Tustex | Medium |
| Ports throughput (tonnage, 9M) | 20.42m tonnes | 2025-09-30 | OMMP | DG Trésor | Medium |
| Containers (Radès, H1) | +17.0% YoY | 2024-06-30 | TAP | OMMP Radès | Medium (Currency↓) |
| Air passengers (all airports, FY) | 9,646,949 pax | 2024-12-31 | La Presse (OACA) | Aero-News | Medium |
| Tourism entries (Jan–Oct) | ~9.5m entries | 2025-10-31 | DestinationTunisie (ONTT) | Webdo | Medium |
| Electricity production (YTD) | ≈14,000 GWh; peak 4,837 MW | 2025-08-31 | ONEM PDF | TAP | High |
| USD/TND (spot; regime) | ≈2.958 TND per USD | 2025-11-24 | Bloomberg | Bpifrance | Medium |
Read-through: prices are cooling, funding is steady, imports strength plus stable power backstop urban logistics; CAPEX inflation still bites, so prefer refurb/light-CAPEX plays.
| Sector | Now | Inference (6-month band) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | CPI-rents 5.3% YoY · Oct-2025; TMM 7.49% · Oct-2025 | Rents +0.5% to +1.5%; Prices 0% to +2% | Indexation; limited new supply; ±0.3 pp per ±50 bps TMM | Medium |
| Office | Prime grids not public (KF 2022 ref only) | Prime 0% to +2%; B stock −1% to 0% | Low supply; fit-out costs sticky; ±0.5 pp per ±50 bps | Medium |
| Retail | Tourism & TUN pax supportive | Mall base 0% to +2%; High-street 0% to +1% | Footfall; disinflation easing; sensitivity to ONTT/OACA monthly | Medium |
| Industrial & Logistics | OMMP tonnage flat; Radès +17% H1-2024 | Prime rents 0% to +2%; Vacancy −0.1 pp to 0 pp | TEUs; power prints; ±0.5 pp if TEUs stall | Medium |
| Hospitality | ~9.5m entries Jan–Oct-2025; TUN pax 7.25m FY-2024 | ADR +2% to +4%; Occ 0 to +1.5 pp | Airline capacity; shoulder season; FX on FF&E | Medium |
| Education | Permits/completions gated | Space demand flat to +1% | Private operator expansion; CPI-rents anchor | Medium |
| Alt-Assets (DC/cold-chain) | Peak load 4,837 MW · Aug-2025; INTT fibre improving | DC +1% to +3%; Cold-chain +1% to +2% | Power headroom; fibre latency; FX CAPEX costs | Medium |
| Sector | Now | Inference (6-month band) | Drivers & Sensitivities | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Residential | Outside-GT IPIM +9.2% q/q · Q1-2024 (proxy) | Rents +0.25% to +1.25%; Prices 0% to +2% | CPI-rents; muted completions; ±0.3 pp per ±50 bps | Medium |
| Office | Connectivity soft (SFX pax −10.1% YoY) | Prime 0% to +1%; B stock −1% to 0% | Tenant consolidation; fit-out costs; ±0.5 pp per ±50 bps | Medium |
| Retail | Tourism strong nationally; local pax down | Prime 0% to +1%; Secondary −1% to 0% | Air schedules; operator occupancy | Medium |
| Industrial & Logistics | Sfax containers declined in 9M-2024 (press) | Prime 0% to +1.5%; Vacancy flat to −0.1 pp | TEUs; power cadence | Medium |
| Hospitality | Business-leaning market; pax down | ADR +1% to +3%; Occ 0 to +1 pp | Airline schedules; events calendar | Medium |
| Education | Permits/completions gated | Space demand flat to +1% | Private operator plans | Medium |
| Alt-Assets (DC/cold-chain) | Stable power; urban cold-store need | DC +1% to +3%; Cold-chain +1% to +2% | Power feeders; operator leases | Medium |
Test: Check container concentration & momentum at Radès and consumer-goods imports.
Evidence: Radès handles ~79% of containerized tonnage and posted +17% YoY containers in H1-2024 (OMMP, TAP); consumer-goods imports +10.9% YoY in Oct-2025 (INS, INS PDF).
Finding: Last-mile demand is expanding despite flat tonnage headlines.
Implication: Keep Tunis prime logistics rent band at 0–2% with upside bias; Sfax 0–1.5% pending TEU stabilization.
Test: Track INS IPVI “Matériaux…” and FX regime.
Evidence: Index at 209.5 · Sep-2025 (up in 2025) (INS IPVI); USD/TND ≈2.958 and a managed float (Bloomberg, Bpifrance).
Finding: No sign of sharp cost easing in the next six months.
Implication: Prefer refurb/light-CAPEX; retain contingencies; index where feasible.
| Rank | City | Sector | Score | Why now | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tunis | Hospitality | 3.40 | Tourism and air connectivity underpin ADR/occ. | Medium |
| 2 | Tunis | Industrial & Logistics | 3.33 | Radès hub + imports demand; CPI-linked leases. | Medium |
| 3 | Tunis | Retail | 3.27 | Hospitality-adjacent F&B and prime high-street. | Medium |
| 4 | Tunis | Alt-Assets (DC/cold-chain) | 3.25 | Stable grid; fibre improving; consumer logistics. | Medium |
| 5 | Tunis | Residential | 3.18 | Indexed rents; phased releases to manage CAPEX. | Medium |
Two-Source Rule on decisive metrics (primary authority + Tier-1 corroboration). CRAAP ≥80 per source. Freshness Guard = 12 months; older series flagged and paired with an upgrade path (e.g., OMMP monthly TEUs by port; OACA monthly passengers; ONTT regional hotel KPIs; CPF transactions; municipal permits/completions).
Inference is clearly labeled and shows drivers and ± sensitivities (e.g., ±0.5 pp per ±50 bps TMM for rent bands). Currency: TND primary.
The Tunisia Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 argues that value is concentrated in Grand Tunis, where tourism-led footfall and container-driven consumption intersect. Cap rates are flat, CPI disinflation helps tenants, and build costs remain sticky. The scorecard favors Tunis hospitality, urban logistics, and hospitality-adjacent retail; Sfax is selective-buy pending stronger air and port cadence.
Track these monthly to validate or challenge the Tunisia Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2:
The IPVI materials index suggests no quick deflation. Break packages, seek fixed-price lots, minimize FX-exposed MEP/FF&E, and keep contingency at 5–10%. This cost posture is central to the Tunisia property outlook 2025H2 and helps defend IRR under flat cap-rate assumptions.
We built the Tunisia real estate outlook (2025 H2) on INS (CPI/IPVI/Comext), BCT (TMM), OMMP (ports), OACA (air), and ONTT (tourism) with Tier-1 corroboration. Confidence is High where both sides are strong; Medium where the monthly series are gated. Upgrade paths: OMMP TEUs by port, OACA monthly by airport, ONTT regional KPIs, municipal permits/completions, and CPF transactions.
Import the CSV logs and JSONL evidence from the Tunisia Real Estate Outlook 2025 H2 Data Pack into your models, map the Gap-Scorecard to live assets, and re-run sensitivities monthly as signposts update. If you need a deeper asset-level breakdown, contact us—we’ll align the outlook with your absorption, NOI, and IRR scenarios.
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